Weekly briefs
One real week of Bitcoin and Ether: what the data shows, what it cannot show, and what a careful desk would check.
391 notes, newest week first
Week of 5 October 2020: Bitcoin and Ether rise about 6% on below-average volumeWhen both assets gain roughly 6% and close near their weekly highs but on lighter volume than usual, what does the week's shape say about the move's strength?Week of 28 September 2020: both assets close lower on volume below the twelve-week averageWhen a week produces only small price changes on thin trading volume, what does that calm actually tell a risk desk, and what does it hide?Week of 21 September 2020: mid-week drop, close near range top on light volumeWhen a market falls hard mid-week but closes near the top of its range, what does that pattern say about the balance between selling and buying, and what can it not say?Week of 14 September 2020: Bitcoin gains 5.69% while Ether trails by 4.43 pointsWhen both assets close the week higher but one lags by more than four percentage points, is that gap a shift in relative value, or just a difference in volatility during an ordinary week?Week of 7 September 2020: BTC and ETH end higher, with ETH ahead by 3.1 pointsAfter a sharp prior week, what does a modest weekly gain on lighter BTC volume say about whether the decline has paused, and how much of the move belongs to Ether rather than Bitcoin?Week of 31 August 2020: Bitcoin falls 12.42% and Ether 17.75% in one weekWhen a week rises to an early high, then falls to close in the lower third of its range on above-average volume, what does the price record show and what does it leave unsettled?Week of 24 August 2020: Ether rises 9.78% while Bitcoin ends 0.54% higherWhen two crypto assets share the same midweek low but finish the week far apart, what does the price data say about the divergence, and what can it not establish?Week of 17 August 2020: Bitcoin slips 2.21% after four rising weeks as Ether falls 9.89%When four consecutive rising weeks end with a small Bitcoin loss but a much larger Ether loss, what does the week say about where the risk was concentrated, and what can it not say?Week of 10 August 2020: Ether gains 11% while Bitcoin adds 2% in the same directionWhen two crypto assets rise in the same week but one gains nearly six times more than the other, what does the data show about relative strength, and what can it not explain about why the gap opened?Week of 3 August 2020: Bitcoin gains 5.51%, closing 2.65% below its 52-week highWhen both assets rise for a fourth week in five while longs keep paying funding, what does the week's shape say about the strength of the move, and what can it not say?Week of 27 July 2020: Bitcoin gains 11% and Ether 20%, both reversing inside Sunday's high hourWhen two assets post weekly returns at the 89th and 95th percentiles but close far below their highs, what does the week's final hours add to how those gains should be read?Week of 20 July 2020: Ether rises 30.06% while Bitcoin adds 7.85%When one asset gains four times as much as the other in the same week, what does the gap say about their relationship, and what can the week's data not settle?Week of 13 July 2020: Bitcoin and Ether edge lower on volume below the recent averageWhen both majors drift down on thin volume and near-flat funding, what does the week say about conviction, and what does it leave unresolved?Week of 6 July 2020: Ether rises 6.70% against Bitcoin's 2.57% on thin BTC volumeAfter four losing weeks, does a modest rise on below-average Bitcoin volume mark a turn, and what can an uneven ETH-led week actually establish about the market's direction?Week of 29 June 2020: a quiet week leaves BTC flat and ETH 1.19% higherWhen prices barely move on well-below-average volume and the two majors part ways, what does the week actually establish about direction?Week of 15 June 2020: both assets end slightly lower on below-average volumeWhen a week of trading ends almost where it began, with volume well under its recent average, what does the flat price actually tell a desk about positioning and risk?Week of 8 June 2020: Bitcoin and Ether fall 4-5% on below-average volumeWhen Bitcoin and Ether fall together on light volume while longs still pay funding, what does the week say about direction, and what can it not say about why?Week of 1 June 2020: both assets rise as Monday's rally absorbs a Tuesday selloffWhen a week opens with a sharp one-day gain and then gives part of it back, what does the path through the week say about the durability of the move?Week of 25 May 2020: Bitcoin gains 8.37% and Ether 15.84% on below-average volumeWhen both assets post strong weekly gains but trade on below-average volume and pay little funding, what does the data support saying about the move's depth, and what does it leave open?Week of 18 May 2020: Bitcoin falls 9.92% while Ether loses only 3.44%, lifting the ratio 7.2%When two closely correlated assets fall by very different amounts in one week, what does the gap between them tell us, and what does it leave unanswered?Week of 11 May 2020: Bitcoin and Ether each gain about 10% after a Monday lowWhen both assets fall to a weekly low early in the week and then recover, what can the shape of that week tell us about the recovery, and what does it leave open?Week of 4 May 2020: Bitcoin touches 10,067 then closes down 1.93%; Ether falls 10.64%When a market that has risen for four straight weeks first breaks higher and then collapses into the bottom of its own range, what does the shape of that week reveal about the rallies that preceded it?Week of 27 April 2020: Bitcoin gains 15.61%, then reverses off Thursday's highWhen a market posts a fifth consecutive rising week and then turns down within hours of its high, what can that week tell about momentum, and what cannot it say about the weeks ahead?Week of 20 April 2020: fifth straight weekly gain on below-average BTC volumeWhen a market rises for a fifth straight week on below-average volume and near-zero funding, what does the price data confirm, and what does it leave open about the quality of the rally?Week of 13 April 2020: Ether gains 13.54% while Bitcoin rises 3.14% on thin BTC volumeWhen both assets rise together but Ether gains four times more than Bitcoin, what does the week say about relative strength, and what weakens the case that the advance is durable?Week of 6 April 2020: Ether rises 11.14% as Bitcoin adds 1.93% after the prior week's rallyWhen both assets rise but one gains nine percentage points more than the other, what does that gap say, and what can a week of price data not explain about it?Week of 30 March 2020: Bitcoin gains 15.17% with negative average fundingWhen a market rebounds strongly after a violent decline, what can one week of prices and funding rates say about the recovery, and what can it not establish?Week of 23 March 2020: both assets rise but close low in a wide rangeWhen a week ends with a small gain after a strong start and a long fade, what does the shape of the week say about the strength of the recovery, and what does it leave uncertain?Week of 9 March 2020: Bitcoin falls 33% and Ether 38% in a single weekWhen a market loses a third of its value in one week, how much of the loss came from a single day, and what does that mean for risk limits set during calmer weeks?Week of 24 February 2020: Bitcoin falls 14% and Ether 21% while longs keep paying fundingWhen a week opens at its high, closes near its low, and funding stays positive throughout, what does that combination say about the pressure on leveraged long positions?
Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.