Week of 6 July 2020: Ether rises 6.70% against Bitcoin's 2.57% on thin BTC volume
After four losing weeks, does a modest rise on below-average Bitcoin volume mark a turn, and what can an uneven ETH-led week actually establish about the market's direction?
BTC rose from 9,069.41 to 9,302.75 (+2.57%) and ETH from 227.54 to 242.79 (+6.70%). ETH led by 4.13 points, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 4.03%. BTC dollar volume was 0.61 times its prior twelve-week average, ETH's 0.96 times, and both assets set their weekly lows in the week's first hour.
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed at 00:00 UTC on Monday 6 July, in the week's opening hour (BTC 9,055.92, ETH 226.93), and peaked on Wednesday 8 July (BTC 9,470.00 at 14:00, ETH 248.88 at 20:00). The largest hourly moves were small and simultaneous: +1.51% for BTC and +1.76% for ETH, both in the hour starting 13:00 UTC on Wednesday. Monday was the best day for both (BTC +3.03%, ETH +6.18%); Thursday 9 July the worst (BTC -2.16%, ETH -2.01%). ETH gained 4.13 percentage points more than BTC, and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 4.03%. Volume was below the recent average for BTC: its dollar volume of 2.64 billion was 0.61 times its prior twelve-week average, while ETH's 1.03 billion was 0.96 times, close to its own average.
What it does not show. BTC volume below the recent average means its rise came with less participation than the prior twelve weeks; the data cannot distinguish quiet buying from an absence of sellers. ETH's volume was near its own average, so the two legs of this week do not share the same thinness. Nothing here identifies who traded or why ETH outperformed. BTC's return ranked at the 59th percentile and ETH's at the 74th of the 125 weeks recorded, so neither move was historically extreme. Both assets remained well below their 52-week highs (BTC -23.87%, ETH -15.10%).
What a careful desk would check. The four prior weekly BTC returns were -4.15%, -0.51%, -1.92% and -0.51%, so this is the first up week in five and could be a reversal or noise inside a slow decline. Realised volatility, the scaled size of actual price swings, was 25.9% for BTC and 43.3% for ETH, materially higher for ETH. BTC closed just above the middle of its weekly range (close location 59.6%), while ETH closed in the upper part (72.3%). A desk would compare the 4.57% BTC and 9.67% ETH ranges against that volatility before sizing anything.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding held at 0.01% per eight hours all week, with the average, high and low identical. ETH averaged 0.0101% and never left 0.0100-0.0116%. Longs carried a small, steady cost with no sign of crowding in either direction.
What would change this reading
- If a later week sees BTC volume return towards its prior twelve-week average while price holds above 9,055.92, the gain gains participation rather than thinness.
- If ETH continues to outpace BTC, the 4.03% ratio rise begins to read as a trend rather than a one-week divergence.
- If BTC trades back below 9,055.92, this week's opening-hour low was a step in the prior four-week decline rather than a floor.
- If the four-week BTC run of negative returns is followed by more negative weeks, the 59th-percentile gain reads as a pause.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 59th percentile means 59% of the 125 prior weeks were lower
- close location
- where the week's close sat within the range between its weekly low and high
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts