Market notes
What did the market actually do in a given week, and what would a careful desk check before taking risk?
Every note here is tied to one real week of Bitcoin and Ether trading. The numbers come from the data for that week, the notes separate what the data shows from what it cannot show, and any decision is framed as a question for an illustrative desk rather than advice.
Latest week
Week of 14 September 2026: Bitcoin gains 5.64% and Ether 6.79%, both closing near weekly highsAfter falling early in the week, Bitcoin and Ether closed near their weekly highs. What do the price path, volume and funding (payments between long and short holders of perpetual futures, which have no expiry) show, and what do they not show?Start here
Dollar volumeWhy do analysts measure trading activity in money moved rather than in coins that changed hands?Week of 22 December 2025: both assets slip in a thin week, closing low in their rangesPrices drifted slightly lower this week while far less money than usual changed hands. What does a quiet week like this show about the market, and what does it leave open?A fixed crypto sleeve drifts above target as ETH gains 4.75% and closes 4.24% below its 52-week highShould a fund that holds a fixed share of its money in crypto (its crypto sleeve) sell some ETH now to return to that share, or keep the excess (the overweight) after two weeks of 30.06% and 19.74% gains?Two-sided weekWhat does it mean when a market falls hard and rallies hard in the same week?Week of 10 June 2024: Bitcoin falls 4.27% on below-average volume while Ether loses lessBitcoin and Ether both fell this week on lighter-than-usual trading: was this a meaningful move or a quiet drift, and what does Ether falling less than Bitcoin say about the week?Close locationWhere did the week finish inside its own trading range, and what does that position suggest about who won the week?Week of 16 December 2019: Bitcoin gains 5.36% while Ether loses 7.28%, a 12.64-point splitHow much of the gap between Bitcoin's weekly rise and Ether's fall comes from when each coin moved, and what can prices and funding rates (payments between long and short holders of no-expiry perpetual futures) show about it?Look-ahead biasWhat goes wrong when a past decision, or a rule tested on past prices, is allowed to use information that was not available when the decision was made?Week of 24 September 2018: Bitcoin slips 1.2% while Ether falls 4.74% on above-average volumeBoth Bitcoin and Ether fell this week, Ether by 3.54 percentage points more: was this a market-wide drop or an Ether-specific one, and what can price and volume data alone show?
Weekly briefs 391
One real week of Bitcoin and Ether: what the data shows, what it cannot show, and what a careful desk would check.
- Week of 14 September 2026: Bitcoin gains 5.64% and Ether 6.79%, both closing near weekly highsAfter falling early in the week, Bitcoin and Ether closed near their weekly highs. What do the price path, volume and funding (payments between long and short holders of perpetual futures, which have no expiry) show, and what do they not show?
- Week of 31 August 2026: Bitcoin and Ether rise about 4% on modest volume and flat fundingBitcoin rose 3.42% and Ether 4.04% this week, while funding (a payment between buyers and sellers of a leveraged futures contract) stayed near zero. What does the hour-by-hour price path show, and what does it leave open?
- Week of 24 August 2026: Bitcoin closes flat as Ether falls 1.89%When Bitcoin finishes a week almost unchanged but Ether falls nearly two percent, does that divergence say anything about the strength of the move that came before it, and what could price data alone confirm?
- Week of 17 August 2026: Bitcoin gains 23.58% and Ether 31.31%, both at the 99th percentileAfter four mixed weeks, what does a week in which Bitcoin gains 23.58% and Ether 31.31% say about the strength of the move, and what can price data alone not establish?
Concepts 287
One idea at a time, explained in plain words and shown at work in a real week.
- 52-week highHow close is a market's price to the highest level it reached over the past year, and what does that distance suggest?
- All-time highWhat does an all-time high mean, and how is that different from the highest price reached in the past year?
- AlphaWhat does it mean when an asset beats a benchmark, and how do you measure the part of the return the benchmark did not deliver?
- AnchoringWhy do traders judge today's price against an older number, and what happens when that number has stopped being relevant?
Market cases 189
A real market week and the decision it posed for an illustrative desk, with a conditional judgment.
- A 99th-percentile week forces a reversion desk to trade against its own edgeShould the desk keep taking full-size counter-trend entries against a week whose 23.58% return ranked in the 99th percentile of 444 weeks, or cut size and trade only pullbacks on the trend side?
- A once-daily ETH conversion meets a week in which ETH moved 17.46% in a single dayShould the payments company keep converting customer receipts into ETH once a day, or move to a faster cadence so a single day's 17.46% swing stops setting the whole week's cost?
- A 4th-percentile week on 1.75 times the prior 12-week volume forces a rebalance buyShould the allocator let its scheduled rebalance restore the small crypto sleeve's target weight after this week's 14.04% fall, or cut the sleeve's weight first and buy back later?
- A daily receipt conversion meets a 15.77% week inside a 34.26% rangeShould the payments company keep converting each day's receipts in one fixed UTC window, or split and cap the conversion while the asset moves 34.26% within a week?
Industry cases 7,979
Real weeks of 24 US stock-market industries, each with one decision for an illustrative decision maker. Source: Kenneth R. French Data Library, computed by RISCON Labs.
- A 1.79-point lag in aircraft, ships and rail equipment during a calm weekShould the manager resize the aircraft, ships and railroad equipment holding after a 1.79-point lag against the market in a week when volatility stayed at its usual level, or leave the holding and its limits unchanged?
- A 22nd-of-24 apparel week tests whether one ranked return can count as a usable signalShould the analyst count apparel's 22nd-of-24 finish as one observation in the ranking test, or treat it as a usable signal now, when one week cannot show whether recent ranks predict later returns?
- An automobiles and trucks holding 22.5% below its high meets a review rule after a 3.76% fallShould the committee cut the automobiles and trucks holding now that it sits 22.5% below its 52-week high, or keep its weight through the formal review while accepting that further falls may follow?
- A 1.77% fall in banking, insurance and real estate in a calm week tests a routine reviewShould the portfolio manager change the banking, insurance, real estate and trading holding after a 1.77% weekly fall that trailed the market by only 0.44 points, or keep it and record a routine review?
- Equal-weight business equipment fund trails its benchmark by 3.29 points in a 0.53% weekShould the equal-weight fund keep reporting its 3.29-point gap to the value-weighted benchmark as the known cost of its design, or add a tilt towards large firms to narrow such gaps?
- A long-short fund's shipping-container leg trails the market by 2.68 points in a calm weekShould the fund keep its long business supplies and shipping containers, short broad market position at its current size after the industry trailed the market by 2.68 points, or cut it while the industry sits 3.63% below its 52-week high?
Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.