Week of 13 April 2020: Ether gains 13.54% while Bitcoin rises 3.14% on thin BTC volume
When both assets rise together but Ether gains four times more than Bitcoin, what does the week say about relative strength, and what weakens the case that the advance is durable?
BTC rose from 6,903.79 to 7,120.74 (+3.14%) and ETH from 158.56 to 180.03 (+13.54%). Both set their weekly low at 00:00 UTC on Thursday 16 April and their high late on Saturday 18 April. BTC dollar volume was 0.81 times its prior 12-week average, and ETH outperformed BTC by 10.4 percentage points.
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed in the same hour: BTC at 6,468.27 and ETH at 148.33 at 00:00 UTC on Thursday 16 April, then rose into Saturday evening (BTC high 7,293.08 at 22:00 UTC, ETH high 189.54 at 23:00 UTC). Thursday was the best day for both (BTC +7.26%, ETH +12.8%) and contained the largest hourly move of the week in the same hour, 07:00 UTC (BTC +3.05%, ETH +5.92%). Both closed in the upper third of their weekly range. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 52.9% for BTC and 87.2% for ETH. The move ranked at the 64th percentile for BTC and the 88th for ETH against 113 weeks of history, and it followed four prior weeks that were up for BTC (8.5%, 1.12%, 15.17%, 1.93%).
What it does not show. The candles cannot explain why ETH rose more, and volume gives one caution: BTC dollar volume of 3.47 billion was 0.81 times its prior twelve-week average, so the advance came on lighter trading than in recent weeks. ETH volume of 1.17 billion was 1.03 times its average. Both assets remained about 49% below their 52-week highs, so this was a rebound inside a larger decline rather than a return to prior levels. Nothing here identifies who was buying or whether the demand persists.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's realised volatility of 87.2% was well above BTC's 52.9%, and its largest hourly move, 5.92%, was nearly twice BTC's 3.05%, so an ETH position sized like a BTC one carries materially more risk. The Tuesday-to-Thursday path matters: BTC's worst day was Wednesday (-3.6%) before Thursday's reversal, meaning the week's gain rested on a single strong day rather than steady drift. A desk would also note funding divergence.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged -0.007% per eight hours, dipping to -0.046%, so on average short holders paid long holders. ETH funding averaged +0.0094%, with readings between -0.0025% and 0.01%, so on average long holders paid short holders. The averages for the two markets point in opposite directions, though the ranges show each crossed zero at some point.
What would change this reading
- If BTC volume returns above its prior 12-week average while price holds above the weekly open of 6,903.79, the low-volume advance gains support.
- If ETH's weekly gain over BTC repeats, the 10.08% rise in the ETH/BTC ratio becomes a trend rather than one week.
- If BTC trades back below the weekly low of 6,468.27, Thursday's reversal reads as a pause inside a decline that is already 48.99% below the 52-week high.
- If BTC funding moves from negative towards positive while price stalls, the short holders who were paying may have closed, removing one source of support.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 88th percentile means 88% of the 113 weeks were lower
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts