Week of 6 April 2020: Ether rises 11.14% as Bitcoin adds 1.93% after the prior week's rally
When both assets rise but one gains nine percentage points more than the other, what does that gap say, and what can a week of price data not explain about it?
BTC rose from 6,772.78 to 6,903.79 (+1.93%) and ETH from 142.69 to 158.59 (+11.14%). ETH's weekly return ranked at the 82nd percentile of 112 weeks, versus 57th for BTC, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 9.03%. BTC volume ran about equal to its prior 12-week average (0.97x).
What the data shows. Both assets rose together but at different speeds. BTC gained 8.23% on Monday 6 April, its best day, then gave back ground: Friday 10 April was its worst day (-5.83%) and it closed at 6,903.79, in the lower third of its week range (22.8%). ETH rose 20.06% on Monday and closed at 158.59, in the middle third of its range (47.6%). The hourly correlation of 0.85 shows the two moved closely, so the ETH/BTC ratio's 9.03% rise reflects ETH's larger amplitude rather than a divergence in direction. Realised volatility—how much prices actually swung, scaled to a yearly figure—was 59.2% for BTC and 94.9% for ETH. Both remained far below their 52-week highs: BTC 50.55% below, ETH 55.68%. Volume was unremarkable for BTC (0.97 times its prior 12-week average) and modestly higher for ETH (1.18x). This followed a BTC week of +15.17%.
What it does not show. The data cannot say why ETH gained more, whether the gap reflects changes in demand, positioning, or something else entirely. Funding is a periodic payment between long and short holders of perpetual futures; it averaged near zero for both (BTC 0.0028% and ETH 0.0066% per eight hours), so leverage costs were small on average, though the data cannot show what role leverage played in the move. Nothing here identifies who traded or what came next.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's week range was 23.58% against BTC's 10.68%, so ETH positions sized on BTC swings would carry materially larger exposure. A desk would compare stop distances with the 3.49% ETH hour on Monday 23:00 UTC and ask whether the ratio's 9.03% shift is a reversion still in progress or a completed move.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 9.03% gain in a later week, this week reads as a swing within a range rather than a lasting change.
- If BTC volume rises well above its prior 12-week average, the light turnover of this week may have understated the move's significance.
- If BTC trades back above its weekly high of 7,459.69 while funding stays near zero, the lower-third close was a pause, not a turn.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which asset gained more
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts