Week of 30 March 2020: Bitcoin gains 15.17% with negative average funding
When a market rebounds strongly after a violent decline, what can one week of prices and funding rates say about the recovery, and what can it not establish?
BTC rose from 5,880.5 to 6,772.78 (+15.17%) and ETH from 124.47 to 142.68 (+14.63%). The week's low came at the open on Monday 30 March and its high at 17:00 UTC on Thursday 2 April. BTC funding averaged -0.0102% per eight hours, while BTC still sat 51.49% below its 52-week high.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly low in the first hour, at 00:00 UTC on Monday 30 March, and reached their high at 17:00 UTC on Thursday 2 April: 7,198.0 for BTC and 149.76 for ETH. BTC closed 6,772.78, in the upper third of its 22.88% weekly range. The +15.17% return ranked at the 90th percentile of the 111 weeks recorded before it. Monday was the best day (BTC +8.74%, ETH +6.1%) and Sunday 5 April the worst (BTC -1.23%, ETH -0.99%). The largest hourly move was -4.17% for BTC, in the hour starting 18:00 UTC on Thursday, one hour after the high. Realised volatility (how much price actually swung, scaled to a yearly figure) was 76.5% for BTC and 66.8% for ETH. The two moved very closely (hourly correlation 0.9), and the ETH/BTC ratio changed only -0.47%.
What it does not show. Price candles show direction and speed, not cause, and nothing here identifies who traded. BTC dollar volume was 1.03 times its prior twelve-week average, but ETH volume was 0.63 times its own, so the rise in ETH came on lighter activity. The data has no position or order-book figures.
What a careful desk would check. A rebound after a -33.27% week and an 8.5% week can reverse quickly. The -4.17% hour came immediately after the peak, so a desk would test whether stops and margin buffers were set against that hour rather than the weekly return. BTC remained 51.49% below its 52-week high and ETH 60.13% below its own.
Funding. BTC funding averaged -0.0102% per eight hours, with a weekly low of -0.0643% and a weekly high of 0.01%. A negative average means holders of short positions paid holders of long ones across the week as a whole. ETH funding averaged 0.007%.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below 5,857.76, this rebound reads as a pause inside a falling market rather than a turn.
- If BTC funding stays negative while price moves above 7,198.0, shorts keep paying for a move against them.
- If ETH volume stays at 0.63 of its prior twelve-week average while price rises, the ETH leg rests on thin activity.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the week, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- a periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; negative means shorts pay longs
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 90th percentile means 90% of past weeks were lower