Weekly briefs
One real week of Bitcoin and Ether: what the data shows, what it cannot show, and what a careful desk would check.
391 notes, newest week first
Week of 22 October 2018: BTC and ETH edge lower on volume near a quarter of the prior averageWhen both assets fall slightly on very light volume, what does the week's structure suggest about conviction, and what can it not establish about direction?Week of 15 October 2018: a 21.9% range that closed back near its lowWhen a week opens with a sudden 10.6% hourly spike that then fades, what does the closing position inside the week's range tell us about who held control by Sunday?Week of 8 October 2018: Bitcoin slips 4% while Ether falls 13% and volume dries upWhen both assets fall together but one falls three times as far and trading volume is thin, what does that say about the durability of the move?Week of 1 October 2018: Bitcoin and Ether close flat to lower on half the usual volumeWhen both assets barely move on volume far below their recent norm, what does the week say about the market's direction, and what does it leave open?Week of 24 September 2018: Bitcoin slips 1.2% while Ether falls 4.74% on above-average volumeBoth Bitcoin and Ether fell this week, Ether by 3.54 percentage points more: was this a market-wide drop or an Ether-specific one, and what can price and volume data alone show?Week of 17 September 2018: Ether gains 11.02% while Bitcoin gains 3.2%When Ether rises far faster than Bitcoin while both set their weekly low before their high, what can one week of price data say about the strength of the move, and what can it not say?Week of 10 September 2018: Ether gains 12.26% while Bitcoin adds 4.04%When two crypto assets rise together but one gains three times as much, what does the week's price and volume data reveal about relative strength, and what does it leave unexplained?Week of 3 September 2018: Bitcoin loses 14% and Ether 34% as both close near the week lowWhen Bitcoin and Ether fall in the same week but Ether loses more than twice as much, what does the gap show, and what can a week of price data not explain?Week of 27 August 2018: Bitcoin rises 8.99% and Ether 7.75% in a shared reboundWhen two assets rebound together after a stretch of falling weeks, how much of that rebound can a week of price data actually establish about a change in trend?Week of 20 August 2018: Bitcoin rises 3.43% while Ether falls 8.36% in the same weekWhen Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions over a single week, what does the split say about relative strength, and what can one week of price data not explain?Week of 6 August 2018: Bitcoin falls 10.19% and Ether 22.23%, both near weekly lowsWhen Bitcoin and Ether fall together but Ether falls twice as far, what does the week say about the common move and about the relative one?Week of 30 July 2018: Bitcoin drops 14.45% and closes in the lower third of its rangeWhen a market that had risen for three of the previous four weeks falls double digits without a single shock hour, what does the week's shape say about the trend that follows?Week of 23 July 2018: Bitcoin gains 11.04% while Ether rises only 1.95%, an 8.18% ratio gapWhen both assets rise in the same week but one gains nearly six times more, what does the price data say about where the buying went, and what does it leave open?Week of 16 July 2018: Bitcoin gains 16.38% while Ether adds only 1.71%When Bitcoin and Ether share the same direction but finish the week 14.67 percentage points apart, what does that gap tell us about where the move was concentrated?Week of 9 July 2018: Bitcoin falls 5.35% and Ether 7.56% on below-average volumeWhen two assets fall together for a week on lighter-than-usual volume, what does the shape of the week say, and what can price data alone never establish?Week of 2 July 2018: BTC and ETH rise together on below-average volume after weeks of declineWhen two assets rise together after several falling weeks but on light volume, how should a reader weigh the rebound against the caution signals in the same data?Week of 25 June 2018: Bitcoin rises 3.57% while Ether slips 0.48% after three down weeksWhen Bitcoin and Ether diverge in a single week after a run of losses, what does the price data say about the rebound, and what does it leave unmeasured?Week of 18 June 2018: Bitcoin -4.77% and Ether -8.6% on volume below the 12-week averageWhen two assets fall for a fourth week in five but trade on lighter volume than usual, how should the week's path and its largest hourly move be read?Week of 11 June 2018: both assets fall, then close mid-range after a Thursday reboundWhen two assets fall for a third week in four but close in the middle of their own ranges, what does the week's shape say about the decline, and what can it not settle?Week of 4 June 2018: Bitcoin falls 12.31% and Ether 15.42%, ending at the week's low areaWhen a week ends at the bottom of its range after a run of falling weeks, what does the shape of the decline suggest about selling pressure, and what can it not tell us?Week of 28 May 2018: Bitcoin gains 5.11% and Ether 8.56% on below-average volumeWhen both assets rise for a week but trade below their twelve-week average volume, how much confidence should a desk place in the rebound?Week of 21 May 2018: Bitcoin falls 13.93% and Ether 20.35%, both closing near their weekly lowsWhen two assets fall together in the same week but on very different volumes, what does that week say about direction, and what can it not say about the selling behind it?Week of 7 May 2018: the first weekly fall after four rising weeks for Bitcoin and EtherAfter four consecutive rising weeks in both Bitcoin and Ether, what does the first weekly fall show about the shape of a pullback, and what in this data would suggest whether the pullback has run its course?Week of 30 April 2018: Ether gains 14.97% while Bitcoin adds 2.57%When one of the two largest crypto assets rises close to six times faster than the other in the same week, how much of that is relative strength, and how much is a shared rebound?Week of 23 April 2018: Bitcoin gains 7.21% and Ether 11.31%, closing near the top of rangeWhat can a week of gains tell us when both assets are still well below their 52-week highs, and how should a desk read the mid-week reversal inside it?Week of 16 April 2018: Ether gains 16.30% while Bitcoin adds 5.17% on thin Bitcoin volumeWhen both assets rise in the same week but one gains three times as much, how much of that gap reflects genuine divergence, and how much reflects the thin trading behind it?Week of 9 April 2018: Bitcoin gains 19% and Ether 33% in a single rebound weekWhen two assets rebound sharply in the same week after several weeks of falling and mixed prices, what does the price data say about the rebound, and what can it not establish?Week of 5 March 2018: Bitcoin falls 17.21% and Ether 16.82% in one weekWhat does a double-digit weekly fall look like when only three weeks of history exist, and which parts of the move can be measured without a longer record?Week of 26 February 2018: Bitcoin gains 20.07% while Ether gains 2.99%When Bitcoin and Ether rise together but by very different amounts, how much of the week reads as a broad move, and how much as one asset separating from the other?Week of 19 February 2018: Bitcoin and Ether each fall about 7.6% after a higher prior weekWhen two assets fall by almost identical amounts in the same week, what does the shared shape of the move tell us, and what can a single week of history not establish?
Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.