Week of 25 June 2018: Bitcoin rises 3.57% while Ether slips 0.48% after three down weeks
When Bitcoin and Ether diverge in a single week after a run of losses, what does the price data say about the rebound, and what does it leave unmeasured?
BTC gained 3.57% to 6,356.81 while ETH fell 0.48% to 452.10, a 4.05 percentage-point gap. Both swung widely (BTC range 12.96%, ETH 17.30%) and both closed in the upper third of their ranges, but trading was light: BTC dollar volume was 1.28bn and ETH 0.37bn, each below its prior 12-week average (0.71x and 0.68x). BTC was 45.78% and ETH 61.00% below their 52-week highs.
What the data shows. The two assets diverged. BTC opened at 6,137.95, fell to 5,780.00 at 05:00 UTC on Friday 29 June, then rallied to a weekly high of 6,528.99 early on Saturday 30 June and closed at 6,356.81, in the upper third of its range. ETH peaked midday on Monday 25 June at 474.47, dropped to 404.48 on Friday 29 June and closed at 452.10, nearly flat on the week. Friday 29 June was the pivot for both: BTC's best day (+5.93%) and largest hourly move (+5.52%, hour starting 22:00 UTC), with ETH's largest hourly move (+4.52%) in the same hour. The two moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.86), but ETH lagged enough for the ETH/BTC ratio to fall 3.91%. This followed three down weeks for both assets among the prior four.
What it does not show. The data cannot say why the two diverged, who drove Friday's rally, or whether it reflects new demand or short covering. Volume was modest, at 0.71 times BTC's and 0.68 times ETH's prior twelve-week average, so the price gain arrived on lighter activity than usual. With only 19 weeks of history, no meaningful percentile ranking is available. No funding data is present, so crowding in perpetual futures cannot be assessed.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 64.7% for BTC and 78.6% for ETH, with weekly ranges of 12.96% and 17.30%. Both assets remain deep below their 52-week highs (45.78% and 61.00%), so a single up week inside a longer decline reads differently from a trend change. A desk would ask whether the Friday lows hold and whether volume expands.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades back below its Friday low of 5,780.00 in a later week, this week's gain reads as a bounce inside a decline rather than a turn.
- If volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average while BTC holds above its weekly close of 6,356.81, the lighter-traded rally gains support.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further from its 3.91% weekly decline, the divergence between the two assets is widening rather than closing.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the week's close sits between the week's low and high; upper third means it finished near the top of the range
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1