Week of 9 April 2018: Bitcoin gains 19% and Ether 33% in a single rebound week
When two assets rebound sharply in the same week after several weeks of falling and mixed prices, what does the price data say about the rebound, and what can it not establish?
BTC rose from 7,011.04 to 8,355.00 (+19.17%) and ETH from 400.40 to 533.88 (+33.34%), both closing near the top of their weekly ranges. Both lows came on Monday and both highs on Sunday. Both assets still sit well below their 52-week highs: BTC by 28.74%, ETH by 53.94%.
What the data shows. Neither asset traded below its Monday low for the rest of the week. BTC's low of 6,611.00 came at 20:00 UTC on Monday 9 April; ETH's low of 387.10 came at 14:00 UTC the same day. Both highs arrived on Sunday 15 April, BTC's at 8,429.54 and ETH's at 535.00. Thursday 12 April produced the best day for both (BTC +13.94%, ETH +15.30%) and the largest hourly move (BTC +10.89%, ETH +6.30%, both in the hour starting 11:00 UTC). The two assets moved closely, with an hourly correlation of 0.83, but ETH gained more, so the ETH/BTC ratio rose 11.89%. BTC closed 95.9% of the way up its weekly range and ETH 99.2%.
What it does not show. The candles record where prices went, not what moved them. The four weeks before were mixed: BTC had two up weeks (3.43%, 3.01%) and two down ones (-14.09%, -19.56%), ETH three down weeks and one up. Trading volume tells against a broad, conviction-led move for BTC: its dollar volume of 1.96 billion was 0.77 times its prior twelve-week average, below the norm. ETH's 0.49 billion was 1.01 times its average, roughly normal. The data carries no funding-rate history for this period, so positioning costs cannot be read here.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened, ran at 103.7% annualised for BTC and 115.7% for ETH. Both markets remain deep below their 52-week highs, so a strong week has to be read against the broader picture. A desk would compare the Thursday hourly move with its stop distances and ask whether exits could have been filled in that hour. Only 8 weeks of history exist, so this week cannot be ranked against the past.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below this week's open of 7,011.04 for BTC or 400.40 for ETH, the rebound reads as a pause rather than a turn.
- If BTC volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average while price holds above 8,355.00, the light-volume reading weakens.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back its 11.89% gain, the outperformance was temporary rather than a change in the pair.
- If hourly moves near Thursday's 10.89% repeat, stops sized for an ordinary week remain too tight.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1
- close location
- where the closing price sits within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage