Concept · example: ETH, week of 9 April 2018

Asymmetry of moves

When gains and losses are not the same size, what does that imbalance tell you about risk?

In plain words

Asymmetry of moves means the size of up days and down days is not balanced. If down days are typically larger than up days, the asset falls faster than it rises; if up days are larger, the reverse.

Why it matters

Asymmetry shapes how a position behaves through a week rather than where it ends. An asset that rises in steady steps but falls in one large jump can still end higher while being dangerous to hold through the drop.

In a real week: ETH, week of 9 April 2018

In the week of 9 April 2018, ETH rose 33.34%, with a best day of 15.3% on 12 April and a worst day of -0.24% on 9 April. Up moves dominated, and the largest hourly move was 6.3% on 12 April. A market rising in large steps and falling in small ones behaves differently from one with balanced days.

A common mistake

Treating a positive week return as evidence that gains and losses were evenly spread. The weekly figure hides the size of the individual daily moves that produced it.

Related ideas

realised volatilityskewfat tails

Research notes on real market weeks, not investment advice. Sources: Binance spot BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT 1-hour candles and USD-M perpetual funding rates; weekly figures computed by WSTiger.

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