Week of 23 April 2018: Bitcoin gains 7.21% and Ether 11.31%, closing near the top of range
What can a week of gains tell us when both assets are still well below their 52-week highs, and how should a desk read the mid-week reversal inside it?
BTC rose from 8,785.70 to 9,419.00 (+7.21%) and ETH from 620.67 to 690.85 (+11.31%). Both closed in the upper third of their weekly range, with trading volume above the prior 12-week average for both. ETH's largest hourly move was -5.50% on Wednesday.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 8,785.70, fell to its weekly low of 8,651.62 on Thursday 26 April, and closed at 9,419.00, 19.66% below its 52-week high. Its high of 9,759.82 came early on Wednesday 25 April. The best day was Tuesday 24 April (BTC +7.68%, ETH +8.84%), followed by the worst on Wednesday 25 April (BTC -7.79%, ETH -11.86%), which also carried the largest hourly moves (-3.50% for BTC, -5.50% for ETH, both in the hour starting 03:00 UTC). Volume was 1.16 times BTC's prior 12-week average and 1.50 times ETH's. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 77.2% for BTC and 116.6% for ETH.
What it does not show. Candles record where price went, not why. The data does not identify who was buying or whether the Wednesday reversal was forced selling. The prior four weeks had one down week (BTC -19.56%) and three up weeks (BTC 3.01%, 19.17%, 5.17%), so this gain sits inside a volatile stretch rather than starting a trend on its own. Only ten weeks of history exist in this dataset, so no percentile ranking is available.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's open sat 1.55% above its weekly low and 11.09% below its weekly high, so an entry at the open was close to the week's worst price. A desk would compare the -3.50% hourly move with its stop distances and ask whether positions sized for a calmer week could have been held through Wednesday. The close at 69.2% (BTC) and 81.4% (ETH) of the weekly range suggests the week ended with buying pressure, but a single week cannot confirm direction.
Ether against Bitcoin. Both moved in the same direction with very close hourly correlation (0.92). ETH gained 4.10 percentage points more than BTC, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio by 3.82%. ETH stayed 40.40% below its 52-week high against BTC's 19.66%, so the smaller asset remains deeper in its decline despite the larger weekly gain.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 8,651.62 in a later week, the gain reads as a bounce inside a broader decline rather than a turn.
- If volume returns to its prior 12-week average while price holds near 9,419.00, this week's move looks absorbed rather than repeated.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls back after rising 3.82%, the relative outperformance was a one-week divergence, not a change in leadership.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits between its low and its high
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; a rising ratio means Ether gained against Bitcoin