Week of 11 June 2018: both assets fall, then close mid-range after a Thursday rebound
When two assets fall for a third week in four but close in the middle of their own ranges, what does the week's shape say about the decline, and what can it not settle?
BTC fell from 6,765.00 to 6,449.61 (-4.66%) and ETH from 524.64 to 497.14 (-5.24%). Both set their weekly low in the same hour, 16:00 UTC on Wednesday 13 June, then posted their best day on Thursday 14 June. BTC dollar volume was 0.79 times its prior 12-week average.
What the data shows. Both assets fell in the same direction, and both set their high before their low. BTC's high of 6,922.00 came at 23:00 UTC on Monday 11 June and ETH's of 538.88 at 08:00 UTC on Tuesday 12 June; both weekly lows arrived in the same hour, 16:00 UTC on Wednesday 13 June, at 6,118.68 for BTC and 449.06 for ETH. Thursday 14 June was the best day for both (+5.45% BTC, +9.22% ETH) and also held the largest hourly move, +2.77% for BTC and +8.64% for ETH in the hour starting 16:00 UTC. Weekly ranges were 13.13% for BTC and 20.00% for ETH. Realised volatility, a yearly-scaled measure of how much prices actually swung, was 63.5% for BTC and 108.2% for ETH. Both closed in the middle third of their weekly range (BTC at 41.2%, ETH at 53.5%). BTC dollar volume of 1.53 billion was 0.79 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH's 0.55 billion was about equal to its average at 1.02 times. Three of the prior four weeks were down for both.
What it does not show. The candles record where prices went, not why. Nothing here identifies who was buying or selling, or whether Wednesday's low marked exhaustion or a pause. Light BTC volume cuts both ways: it can mean the decline lacked commitment or that few orders were there to absorb it. With 17 weeks of history behind this week, a return percentile is not available, so this week cannot yet be ranked against a meaningful record.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's largest hourly move was 8.64% against BTC's 2.77% in the same hour, a reminder that position sizes calibrated on BTC's swings can be several times too large in ETH. The Thursday rebound is real but sits inside a week that still closed lower, so it should be read separately from the week's direction.
Ether against Bitcoin. Hourly correlation was 0.84, close but not identical, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 0.61%. ETH's weekly loss exceeded BTC's by 0.58 percentage points. Both remained far below their 52-week highs, BTC by 44.99% and ETH by 57.11%.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below 6,118.68 for BTC or 449.06 for ETH, Wednesday's low reads as a pause rather than a floor.
- If BTC volume returns above its prior twelve-week average while price recovers above the weekly open of 6,765.00, the light-volume decline weakens as a signal.
- If ETH keeps falling faster than BTC, the 0.61% ratio drop becomes a trend and changes which hedge matters.
- If a later week closes above 6,922.00 for BTC or 538.88 for ETH, the Thursday rebound extended rather than stalled.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the weekly close sat between the week's low and high, in percent
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1