Week of 24 November 2025: BTC and ETH end four down weeks on below-average volume
When a market turns up after four consecutive down weeks but trades on below-average volume, what in this week's data supports a turn, and what would still need to be checked?
BTC rose from 86,830.00 to 90,360.00 (+4.07%) and ETH from 2,802.16 to 2,991.26 (+6.75%), the first up week after four down weeks for both. Dollar volume ran at 0.67 times BTC's and 0.52 times ETH's prior 12-week averages. Funding stayed near flat.
What the data shows. Both assets set their lows before their highs: BTC bottomed at 85,272.00 on Monday 24 November 14:00 UTC and peaked at 93,092.00 on Friday 28 November 14:00 UTC; ETH's low of 2,763.00 came in Monday's first hour and its high of 3,099.00 in the same Friday hour as BTC's. The weekly range was 9.17% for BTC and 12.16% for ETH. BTC's best day was Wednesday 26 November (+3.56%), its worst Tuesday 25 November (-1.05%); ETH's best day was Monday 24 November (+5.4%), its worst Saturday 29 November (-1.38%). BTC's close sat in the middle third of its weekly range and ETH's in the upper third. The two assets moved closely (hourly correlation 0.86) and ETH gained more, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 2.58%. Volume, however, was below the prior 12-week average for both (0.67 times for BTC, 0.52 for ETH). The four prior weeks were all down (-3.51%, -5.26%, -9.99%, -7.88% for BTC).
What it does not show. The candles record direction and size, not cause or identity. Below-average volume does not say whether buyers were thin or sellers unwilling. The week's 70th percentile return for BTC (72nd for ETH) over 406 weeks places it in the upper third of history, but that comparison spans up and down markets and says nothing about what follows. At the close, BTC was 28.29% below its 52-week high and ETH 39.39% below.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility (the size of swings actually seen, annualised) was 40.3% for BTC and 59.1% for ETH. A desk would ask whether the largest hourly moves, +2.29% for BTC (Wednesday 26 November 17:00 UTC) and +2.84% for ETH (Monday 24 November 17:00 UTC), came with volume, since moves on thin volume carry less information about where orders sit.
Funding. Perpetual funding (a periodic payment between long and short holders that keeps contract prices near spot) averaged 0.0016% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0025% for ETH, with highs of 0.0061% and 0.0079%. Longs paid slightly, a small cost rather than a sign of heavy crowding.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 85,272.00 in a later week, the rebound reads more as a pause within the prior four down weeks than a turn.
- If volume in a later week rises above the 12-week average while price holds above the 90,360.00 close, the turn gains support that this week lacked.
- If funding moves well above its 0.0061% BTC high while price stalls, the cost of holding longs becomes worth monitoring.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 2.58% gain, ETH's outperformance this week was temporary rather than a shift in relative trend.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much prices actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 70th percentile means 70% of the 406 recorded weeks were lower