Week of 17 November 2025: Bitcoin falls 7.88% and Ether 9.47% in a fourth weak stretch
When both assets fall for a fourth time in five weeks and funding stays slightly positive, what does the week's shape say about whether the decline is exhausted or still running?
BTC fell from 94,261.45 to 86,830.00 (-7.88%) and ETH from 3,095.29 to 2,802.16 (-9.47%). Both set their weekly lows at 12:00 UTC on Friday 21 November, BTC at 80,600 and ETH at 2,623.57. Three of the prior four weeks were down for both assets.
What the data shows. BTC opened near the week's top, its high of 96,043.00 coming at 14:00 UTC on Monday 17 November, only 1.89% above the open. ETH peaked earlier that day, at 3,223.38 at 11:00 UTC. Both then slid to Friday's lows, and Friday 21 November also held BTC's largest hourly move (2.40%, at 16:00 UTC) while ETH's largest was -3.15% on Thursday 20 November at 16:00 UTC. Thursday was the worst day for both, -5.37% for BTC and -6.32% for ETH. ETH moved slightly harder (-1.59 percentage points worse), and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 1.72%, yet the two tracked closely (hourly correlation 0.91). BTC dollar volume was 1.53 times its prior twelve-week average, while ETH volume was about equal to its own. Both weeks ranked at the 14th percentile of 405 weeks of history.
What it does not show. The candles do not say what drove the decline or who was selling. They also do not show capitulation: BTC closed 40.3% up its weekly range, in the middle third, so Friday's low was not where the week ended.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sits 31.09% below its 52-week high and ETH 43.22% below its own. With three of the prior four weeks down for both assets (-3.51%, -5.26% and -9.99% for BTC), this is an extended move rather than a single shock. A desk would test whether position sizes still fit realised volatility of 65.4% for BTC and 88.1% for ETH.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.0056% per eight hours and ETH 0.0057%, with lows of -0.0009% and -0.0024%. Longs paid shorts on average even as prices fell, which is a cost rather than a signal of pressure closing.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below 80,600 for BTC, the Friday low was a pause rather than a floor.
- If funding stays near 0.0056% while prices fall again, longs keep paying to hold positions against the move.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls more than 1.72% in a week, the relative weakness of Ether is deepening rather than stabilising.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the week, expressed as a yearly percentage
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1
- funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts