Week of 3 November 2025: Bitcoin falls 5.26% and Ether 8.27%, both to Tuesday lows
When two assets fall together for a fourth down week in five and Ether falls further, what does the week's shape reveal about the decline, and what remains unmeasurable?
BTC fell from 110,540.69 to 104,722.96 (-5.26%) and ETH from 3,906.58 to 3,583.46 (-8.27%). Both weekly lows arrived in the same hour, 21:00 UTC on Tuesday 4 November. BTC volume was 1.48 times its prior 12-week average.
What the data shows. The week's high arrived immediately: BTC's 110,750.00 and ETH's 3,914.29 both sit in the hour beginning 00:00 UTC on Monday 3 November, just above the week's opens (0.19% for BTC, 0.20% for ETH). Both then slid to their lows in the hour starting 21:00 UTC on Tuesday 4 November — 98,944.36 for BTC, 3,057.00 for ETH — a range of 11.93% for BTC and 28.04% for ETH. Tuesday was also the worst day (BTC -4.77%, ETH -8.79%) and contained BTC's largest hourly move (-2.37%). After the low, both assets recovered: Sunday 9 November was the best day (BTC +2.36%, ETH +5.35%), and the close sat in the middle third of each week's range (48.9% for BTC, 61.4% for ETH). Dollar volume was 1.48 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 1.13 times for ETH. Against the 403 weeks of history available, this return ranked at the 17th percentile for BTC and the 16th for ETH.
What it does not show. The data gives no cause for the decline and no information about who was trading. Three of the four prior weeks were down (BTC: -6.9%, -5.49%, 5.45%, -3.51%), so the week extended a pattern rather than starting one, but price candles cannot say whether the Tuesday low held for structural reasons or only for now.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility — the size of the swings that happened, scaled to a yearly figure — was 47.5% for BTC and 82.8% for ETH. BTC closed 16.89% below its 52-week high and ETH 27.39% below. A desk would compare stop distances and margin buffers with the 2.37% and 3.90% hourly moves, not with the average week, and would note that the Sunday recovery remained inside the range set before it.
Ether against Bitcoin. Hourly correlation was 0.86, close but not lockstep. ETH fell 3.01 percentage points more than BTC, and the ETH/BTC ratio dropped 3.18%. Funding was close to flat for both, averaging 0.0054% per eight hours for BTC and 0.005% for ETH; BTC's rate dipped into negative territory at its low of -0.0016%, while ETH's stayed positive throughout, bottoming at 0.0001%.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below this week's lows of 98,944.36 for BTC and 3,057.00 for ETH, the Tuesday selloff reads as a step down rather than a rejected level.
- If the Sunday recovery (+2.36% for BTC, +5.35% for ETH) is followed by another up week while volume returns towards its twelve-week average, the decline may be stabilising.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further from its -3.18% weekly change, the weakness has become a relative one rather than a shared move.
- If realised volatility stays near 47.5% for BTC and 82.8% for ETH, position sizes set in calmer weeks remain too large for the current range.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; falling means Ether is weakening against Bitcoin
- return percentile
- the share of past weeks whose signed weekly return was lower; the 17th percentile means 17% of the 403 prior weeks had a more negative return