Week of 27 October 2025: both assets fall from Monday highs, with Ether down 6.06%
When Bitcoin and Ether both decline on ordinary volume after mixed weeks, how much of the move is shared direction, and how much is Ether losing ground against Bitcoin?
BTC fell from 114,559.41 to 110,540.68 (-3.51%) and ETH from 4,158.46 to 3,906.58 (-6.06%). Both peaked early Monday and bottomed late Thursday 30 October. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 2.64%, and ETH volume was 0.68 times its prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. Both assets set their highs in the first hours of Monday 27 October: BTC reached 116,400.00 at 07:00 UTC and ETH 4,253.72 at 05:00 UTC. Both then bottomed late on Thursday 30 October, BTC at 106,304.34 (19:00 UTC) and ETH at 3,680.00 (20:00 UTC). The week's range was 9.50% for BTC and 15.59% for ETH. The worst days differed: 29 October for BTC (-2.55%) and 28 October for ETH (-3.42%). The best day was 31 October for both (BTC +1.19%, ETH +1.13%). Both closed in the middle third of their weekly ranges, so the week ended off its lows rather than at them. Hourly correlation between the two was 0.87.
What it does not show. The candles say how far prices moved, not who moved them or why. ETH's larger decline came with thinner activity, and the data cannot say whether that reflects fewer participants or simply less urgency. Nothing here establishes whether Thursday's lows were a turning point or a pause.
What a careful desk would check. Both weekly returns sit near the bottom quartile of the 402 weeks on record (23rd percentile for BTC, 22nd for ETH), yet realised volatility was moderate at 41.4% annualised for BTC and 57.9% for ETH. BTC's largest hourly move was -1.96% and ETH's -2.39%. Volume tells two different stories: BTC traded 13.94 billion dollars, 1.03 times its prior twelve-week average, while ETH's 11.19 billion was 0.68 times its own. A desk would treat a BTC move on normal volume and an ETH move on light volume as different kinds of evidence.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 2.64%, so part of ETH's extra 2.55 percentage points of loss was a shift between the two assets rather than a market-wide move. Both remain well below their 52-week highs: BTC by 12.28% and ETH by 20.84%. The prior four weeks were mixed for both (2 up, 2 down), and the week immediately before this one rose (BTC +5.45%, ETH +4.42%), so this week reverses that gain rather than extending a decline.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes back above this week's BTC open of 114,559.41, the decline reads as a pullback inside a mixed range rather than a change in direction.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after a 2.64% weekly drop, the divergence is becoming a trend of its own and changes which asset carries the risk.
- If BTC volume stays near its twelve-week average while ETH's stays below 0.68 times, the two markets are being priced by different levels of participation.
- If either asset trades below its Thursday low, 106,304.34 for BTC and 3,680.00 for ETH, this week's floor was a pause rather than support.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether divided by the price of one Bitcoin; a falling ratio means Ether is losing ground against Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 23rd percentile means about a quarter of the 402 weeks were lower