Week of 20 October 2025: BTC and ETH rise 5.45% and 4.42%, closing near their weekly highs
When both assets fall to a midweek low and then finish the week near their highs, what does the shape of the week say, and what would confirm or weaken that reading?
BTC rose from 108,642.77 to 114,559.40 (+5.45%), ETH from 3,982.58 to 4,158.46 (+4.42%). Both set their low at 21:00 UTC on Wednesday 22 October and their high late on Sunday 26 October. BTC volume was 1.15 times its prior 12-week average; ETH volume was 0.73 times.
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed in the same hour, 21:00 UTC on Wednesday 22 October (BTC 106,666.69, ETH 3,710.00), and both peaked in the final hours of Sunday 26 October (BTC 115,466.80 at 22:00, ETH 4,178.78 at 23:00). The low came before the high, so most of the weekly gain was built after Wednesday. BTC closed at 89.7% of its weekly range and ETH at 95.7%, both in the upper third. The largest hourly move was +3.45% for BTC and 4.01% for ETH, in the same hour on Tuesday 21 October, a day that was otherwise the week's worst (BTC -2.02%, ETH -2.67%). Sunday was the best day for both (BTC +2.61%, ETH +5.18%). Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened, scaled to a yearly figure, was 43.3% for BTC and 59.8% for ETH.
What it does not show. A weekly gain after three down weeks (-2.66%, 10.09%, -6.90%, -5.49% for BTC) is consistent with a turn, but the data cannot say whether new buying or the closing of short positions drove it. Volume helps only partly: BTC traded 1.15 times its prior twelve-week average while ETH traded 0.73 times, so the ETH rally came on lighter activity. Nothing here identifies who traded or what followed.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sits 9.09% below its 52-week high and ETH 15.74% below, so both closed well short of their peaks. This week's return ranked at the 74th percentile of the 401 weeks recorded for BTC and the 65th for ETH, a strong week but not an extreme one. A desk would compare the Tuesday hourly move with its stop distances and ask whether exits could have filled in that hour.
Ether against Bitcoin. The two moved closely (hourly correlation 0.88) in the same direction, but BTC gained more, so the ETH/BTC ratio fell 0.98%. The divergence is small and came with weaker ETH volume.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades above this week's high of 115,466.80 in a later week on above-average volume, the midweek low reads as a base rather than a bounce.
- If either asset falls back below its Wednesday low — 106,666.69 for BTC, 3,710.00 for ETH — the late-week rally loses its support.
- If ETH volume stays below its prior 12-week average while its return trails BTC's, the ratio weakness at -0.98% may extend.
- If funding rises well above this week's 0.0019% (BTC) and 0.0039% (ETH) averages, the cost of holding longs becomes a larger factor in the next move.
Terms
- close location
- where the week's close sat between its low and high, as a percentage; a high value means closing at the top of the range
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts