Week of 13 October 2025: BTC and ETH both fall, BTC 13.78% below its 52-week high
When both assets fall together in a week and perpetual funding points in opposite directions for each, what does the price data establish, and what remains unmeasurable?
BTC fell from 114,958.81 to 108,642.78 (-5.49%) and ETH from 4,152.29 to 3,982.58 (-4.09%), both setting their low at 10:00 UTC on Friday 17 October. BTC dollar volume was 1.47 times its prior twelve-week average. BTC funding averaged -0.0016% per eight hours while ETH's averaged +0.0028%.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 114,958.81 and set its high of 115,963.81 at 02:00 UTC on Monday 13 October. It set its low of 103,528.23 at 10:00 UTC on Friday 17 October, a range of 12.01% from high to low. ETH traced the same shape: open 4,152.29, high 4,292.00 at 21:00 UTC on Monday, low 3,674.50 at the same Friday hour, a range of 16.81%. Both closed in the middle third of their weekly ranges (BTC at 41.1% of the range, ETH at 49.9%). The worst days came midweek, -2.32% for BTC on Thursday 16 October and -3.38% for ETH on Wednesday 15 October. The best day for both was Sunday 19 October (+1.36% and +2.40%). BTC dollar volume was 18.9 billion, 1.47 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume of 17.31 billion was 1.05 times its average.
What it does not show. The candles record direction and distance, not cause. Above-average volume does not say whether it was buying or selling, and the Sunday bounce does not say whether Friday's low was final. The two assets fell together closely (hourly correlation 0.87) but not equally: ETH lost 4.09% against BTC's 5.49%, so the ETH/BTC ratio rose 1.49%.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 41.3% for BTC and 69.9% for ETH. The largest hourly moves were modest: -1.79% for BTC in the hour starting 15:00 UTC on Thursday, +2.90% for ETH on Tuesday. Both assets sit below their 52-week highs, BTC by 13.78% and ETH by 19.30%. This week's BTC return sits at the 16th percentile of 400 recorded weeks and ETH's at the 28th, so both declines sit in the weaker part of recorded weeks without being among the most severe.
Funding. BTC funding averaged -0.0016% per eight hours, ranging from -0.0064% to +0.0040%, so shorts paid longs on average. ETH averaged +0.0028%, ranging from -0.0026% to +0.0062%, so longs paid shorts. Both averages sit near zero, pointing to no heavy crowding on either side.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below Friday's low of 103,528.23 in a later week, this week reads as a step lower rather than a tested range.
- If the Sunday recovery carries towards the weekly open of 114,958.81 while BTC volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average, the week reads as a range that was tested and held.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio rises further beyond this week's 1.49% shift while ETH funding stays positive, holders are paying to hold the relatively stronger asset.
- If BTC funding stays negative while price recovers, shorts are paying to remain in position, and short-side crowding would be worth measuring.
Terms
- funding rate
- a periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; on average, a negative rate means shorts pay longs
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a milder move; the 16th percentile means 16% of the 400 recorded weeks were milder
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, which rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin