Week of 1 December 2025: Bitcoin closes flat after a 12.32% range, Ether gains 2.29%
After three losing weeks and a wide range, does Bitcoin's flat close and Ether's small gain point to stabilisation, or to a market with little conviction?
BTC moved from 90,360.01 to 90,395.31 (+0.04%) and ETH from 2,991.25 to 3,059.85 (+2.29%). Both hit their weekly lows at 15:00 UTC on Monday 1 December and recovered. Dollar volume stayed below the prior twelve-week average for both (0.85 times for BTC, 0.76 for ETH).
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed in the same hour, 15:00 UTC on Monday 1 December: BTC at 83,822.76 and ETH at 2,716.04. The low came before the high in both cases. BTC reached 94,150 on Wednesday 3 December and ETH 3,240.35 on Thursday 4 December. Monday was the worst day for both (BTC -4.51%, ETH -6.42%) and Tuesday the best (BTC +5.79%, ETH +7.04%). The closes sat near the middle of the week's ranges (BTC at 63.6% of the range, ETH at 65.6%). Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 48.0% for BTC and 70.2% for ETH. The prior four weeks held three declines and one gain for each asset.
What it does not show. A flat close after a 12.32% BTC range and a 19.30% ETH range does not establish a floor. The data contains no information on who traded or why, and no open-interest or order-book figures. BTC ended the week 28.26% below its 52-week high and ETH 38.0%; nothing here says whether that decline has ended.
What a careful desk would check. The largest hourly move was -1.82% for BTC (16:00 UTC Friday 5 December), small beside a 12.32% weekly range, so the week advanced through many moderate hours rather than one violent one. ETH's largest hourly move, +3.86% at 15:00 UTC Tuesday 2 December, came mid-day and coincided with its best day. Volume below the prior twelve-week average weakens what price can imply about where size could be filled.
Funding and Ether against Bitcoin. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0025% per eight hours (high 0.0074%, low -0.0018%) and ETH 0.0044% (high 0.01%, low -0.0025%), so neither side paid a meaningful carry. ETH outperformed by 2.25 percentage points, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 2.25%, against an hourly correlation of 0.87 — close, but not in lockstep.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 83,822.76 in a later week, the Monday low reads as a step down rather than a floor.
- If volume returns towards the prior twelve-week average while BTC holds above its close of 90,395.31, the flat week reads as consolidation with participation behind it.
- If ETH outperforms again with correlation near 0.87, the 2.25% ratio shift starts to look like a trend rather than one week.
- If funding turns clearly negative while price holds, short positions are paying and the balance of positioning has changed.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price; positive means longs pay shorts
- close location
- where the week's closing price fell within its own high-to-low range, measured from the low towards the high