Week of 4 August 2025: Ether rises 21.56% while Bitcoin adds 4.45%
When two assets rise in the same week but one gains nearly five times as much, what does the gap reveal about where market activity concentrated, and what can price data alone not explain?
ETH rose from 3,496.75 to 4,250.57 (+21.56%), its 95th percentile week in 390 weeks of history, while BTC gained 4.45% to 119,294.01. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 16.38% and hourly correlation between the two was 0.68, labelled loose. ETH volume ran above its 12-week average; BTC volume ran below it.
What the data shows. Both assets rose and both closed in the upper third of their weekly range, but the sizes differ sharply. BTC gained 4.45%, with its low of 112,650.00 on Tuesday 5 August and its high of 119,311.11 only in the final hour on Sunday 10 August. ETH gained 21.56%, setting its low of 3,490.73 in Monday's first hour and its high of 4,332.60 at the start of Sunday, with a 6.41% best day on Monday alone. The gap shows up in the ETH/BTC ratio, which rose 16.38%, and in volume: ETH dollar volume of 15.05bn was 1.22 times its prior twelve-week average, while BTC's 9.15bn was 0.72 times its own. ETH's weekly return ranked at the 95th percentile of its 390-week history; BTC's at the 71st. BTC ended 2.8% below its 52-week high and ETH 1.4% below its own.
What it does not show. The data records the size of the divergence, not its cause. Nothing here identifies who drove ETH higher or why BTC volume lagged. The hourly correlation of 0.68 is labelled loose (below 0.7), meaning the two prices moved together less closely than in a tightly coupled week, but correlation describes co-movement, not leadership. Direction alone cannot say whether the gap will narrow or widen.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's annualised realised volatility of 60.9% against BTC's 25.4% means ETH's price swings, scaled to a yearly figure, were about 2.4 times Bitcoin's this week. The 2.76% largest hourly move for ETH on Friday 8 August shows how quickly gains arrived. A desk would ask whether its pair hedges still cover a 16.38% ratio move in a week when hourly correlation was only 0.68, and whether ETH stop distances reflect that swing.
Funding. Perpetual funding stayed positive but modest for both, averaging 0.0067% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0063% for ETH, with maxima of 0.01%. Longs paid shorts a small carry; nothing here signals crowding of the size that funding alone would flag.
What would change this reading
- If ETH volume stays above its 12-week average while BTC volume stays below 0.72 times, the divergence reads as a sustained rotation rather than a one-week move.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back part of the 16.38% gain while BTC holds near 119,294.01, the week reads as ETH catching up rather than leading.
- If either asset closes a later week below this week's low, 112,650.00 for BTC or 3,490.73 for ETH, the upper-third closes were peaks rather than bases.
- If hourly correlation rises well above 0.68, the loose coupling of this week was temporary and pair hedges regain force.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts