Week of 11 August 2025: Ether gains 5.22% while Bitcoin loses 1.58%, a 6.8-point split
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions over one week, how large is the split, how unusual is it for each asset, and what can hourly data say about who led?
BTC fell from 119,294.27 to 117,405.01 (-1.58%) while ETH rose from 4,250.58 to 4,472.33 (+5.22%), a 6.8-point gap. Hourly correlation between the two was 0.60, loose by this desk's label. Both assets traded above their prior 12-week average volume; BTC closed 5.2% below its 52-week high and ETH 6.33% below.
What the data shows. The two assets separated early and stayed apart. ETH set its weekly low of 4,166.77 at 12:00 UTC on Monday 11 August, then rose to a high of 4,788.00 by 06:00 UTC on Thursday 14 August, a range of 14.91%. Its best day, +8.70% on Tuesday 12 August, did most of the weekly gain. BTC moved the other way over a narrower band: its high of 124,474.00 came at 00:00 UTC on Thursday, its low of 116,803.99 at 16:00 UTC on Friday 15 August, a range of 6.57%. Thursday was the worst day for both (BTC -4.06%, ETH -4.26%), and the largest hourly move of the week fell in the same hour for both, at 12:00 UTC (BTC -1.72%, ETH -3.20%). The ETH/BTC ratio, the price of one Ether in Bitcoin terms, rose 6.91%. Realised volatility, the size of actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 32.0% for BTC and 69.2% for ETH.
What it does not show. Correlation of 0.60 describes how loosely the two prices moved together, not why they split. The data cannot say which asset led, whether any flow was institutional or retail, or what the two did after Sunday's close. Dollar volume (BTC 14.41 billion, ETH 24.76 billion) records turnover, not direction of net positioning.
What a careful desk would check. BTC closed in the lower third of its weekly range (7.8% of the way up from the low), a weak finish; ETH closed mid-range (49.2%). Against history, BTC's -1.58% ranked at the 32nd percentile of 391 weeks and ETH's +5.22% at the 68th, so neither week was extreme on its own. A desk would test whether a BTC-ETH hedge sized on the prior weeks would have covered a 6.8-point divergence.
Funding. Perpetual funding, a periodic payment between long and short holders that keeps futures close to spot, stayed near flat: BTC averaged 0.0080% per eight hours (min 0.0019%, max 0.0100%) and ETH 0.0078% (min -0.0007%, max 0.0100%). Longs paid a small carry on both, with no sign of crowding in the rates.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 6.91% gain while hourly correlation rises, the week reads as a temporary divergence rather than a lasting split.
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 116,803.99 while ETH holds above its Monday low of 4,166.77, the separation deepens and pairs trades matter more than outright ones.
- If either asset's funding moves well above the 0.0100% weekly maximum seen here, the small long carry has become a crowding signal.
- If ETH volume falls back towards normal while its +5.22% week holds, the move looks less like a shift in broad demand.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1; this desk labels this week's 0.60 as loose
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage