Week of 28 July 2025: Bitcoin falls 4.36% and Ether 9.69%, both closing near their week lows
After four weeks in which Ether rose every week, what does a joint down week that ends near its low tell us about the strength of the prior trend?
BTC fell from 119,415.56 to 114,208.80 (-4.36%) and ETH from 3,872.11 to 3,496.74 (-9.69%). Both set their lows at 00:00 UTC on Sunday 3 August and closed in the lower third of their range. The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 5.58%.
What the data shows. Both assets set their highs early on Monday 28 July (BTC 119,800.00 at 02:00 UTC, ETH 3,941.00 at 05:00 UTC) and fell from there without the low preceding the high. The worst day for both was Friday 1 August (BTC -2.13%, ETH -5.68%), which also carried BTC's largest hourly move (-1.19% starting 13:00 UTC) and, at 22:00 UTC, ETH's (-2.07%). The lows came in the same hour for both, 00:00 UTC on Sunday 3 August, and the best day was that same Sunday (BTC +1.48%, ETH +3.03%). Both closes sat in the lower third of their weekly range (BTC 29.0%, ETH 24.3%), 6.95% and 14.44% below their 52-week highs. Hourly correlation was 0.85, so the two moved closely, but ETH fell further, taking the ETH/BTC ratio down 5.58%.
What it does not show. The candles say how far prices fell, not why. Nothing here identifies sellers or whether the Sunday bounce reversed anything. Volume tells an uneven story: BTC's dollar volume was 0.95 times its prior twelve-week average, below it, while ETH's was 1.15 times, above it. That asymmetry is measurable but its cause is not.
What a careful desk would check. A week closing in the lower third after a run of up weeks reads differently from one closing mid-range. ETH's four prior weekly returns were 2.81%, 15.63%, 26.40% and 3.07%, all positive, so a -9.69% week ranks at the 14th percentile of the 389 weeks recorded. A desk would ask whether realised volatility (BTC 28.6%, ETH 55.3% annualised) rises from here, and whether ETH keeps losing against BTC rather than merely falling with it.
Funding. Funding stayed near flat: BTC averaged 0.0071% per eight hours (high 0.01%, low -0.0014%) and ETH 0.0053% (low -0.0037%). Longs paid shorts a small amount, which does not suggest heavy crowding on either side.
What would change this reading
- If ETH falls faster than BTC again in a later week, the -5.58% ratio move was the start of a relative shift rather than a one-week adjustment.
- If a later week closes below this week's lows (BTC 111,920.00, ETH 3,354.28), the Sunday bounce reads as a pause.
- If volume for both assets returns well above its twelve-week average while prices hold, the light BTC volume this week looks like hesitation rather than distribution.
- If funding turns negative and stays there while prices keep falling, the payment between longs and shorts would shift, which changes the cost of holding.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which of the two is gaining or losing against the other
- close location
- where the closing price fell within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage