Week of 23 June 2025: Bitcoin adds 7.32% and Ether 12.23% on below-average volume
When both assets post a strong up week after three down weeks but trade on below-average volume and near-zero funding, how much conviction can the price move carry?
BTC rose from 100,963.87 to 108,356.93 (+7.32%) and ETH from 2,227.70 to 2,500.09 (+12.23%), ranking at the 80th and 86th percentiles of 384 weeks of history. Volume ran at 0.68x and 0.71x the prior 12-week average, and funding stayed near zero. The ETH/BTC ratio gained 4.57%.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly lows within the same hour, 16:00 UTC on Monday 23 June, and traded higher from there: BTC's high of 108,528.50 came on Sunday 29 June, ETH's 2,525.00 at 23:00 UTC the same day. The best day for both was Monday itself (BTC +4.33%, ETH +8.26%). Both closed near the top of their weekly ranges: BTC closed at 98.1% of its weekly range, ETH at 92.6%. ETH outperformed by 4.91 percentage points, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 4.57%. Hourly correlation was 0.84, so the two moved closely but not identically. BTC now sits 3.06% below its 52-week high; ETH sits 38.82% below its own.
What it does not show. Dollar volume was 9.71 billion for BTC and 7.12 billion for ETH, equal to 0.68 times BTC's and 0.71 times ETH's prior twelve-week average, so this was a price move made on lighter-than-usual activity. The data cannot say who was buying or whether the move came from new long positions or from the closing of shorts. Nothing here indicates whether the gains will hold.
What a careful desk would check. The weekly return ranked at the 80th percentile for BTC and the 86th for ETH against 384 weeks of history, so most past weeks were weaker, though the four prior weeks had been mostly down for both (three down, one up). Realised volatility (the size of the swings that actually happened, scaled to a yearly figure) was 30.2% for BTC and 56.8% for ETH, and the largest hourly move was 1.78% for BTC. A desk would ask whether the low volume reflects a lack of sellers or a lack of buyers, since the two read very differently.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.002% per eight hours, ranging from -0.0032% to 0.01%; ETH averaged 0.0024%, ranging from -0.0014% to 0.0088%. Both sat near flat through the week, so the payment between long and short holders added little to either side's cost.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes above BTC's 108,528.50 high on heavier volume, this week reads as the start of a sustained move rather than a light-volume squeeze.
- If price gives back this week's gain while the ETH/BTC ratio holds its 4.57% rise, ETH's outperformance is the durable part of the week.
- If funding rises well above 0.002% per eight hours while volume stays below its 12-week average, leverage would be arriving before broad participation.
- If BTC trades back below its weekly low of 99,613.33, the Monday reversal loses its support and the three prior down weeks resume.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 80th percentile means 80% of past weeks were lower
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts