Week of 16 June 2025: Ether falls 12.56% against Bitcoin's 4.38% decline
When both assets fall in the same direction but one drops three times as far on below-average Bitcoin volume, what does the gap between them actually tell a desk?
BTC fell from 105,594.02 to 100,963.87 (-4.38%) and ETH from 2,547.62 to 2,227.70 (-12.56%). Both closed in the lower third of their weekly ranges, with lows on Sunday 22 June. BTC dollar volume was 0.81 times its prior 12-week average; ETH's was 1.05 times.
What the data shows. Both assets fell in the same direction, but not by the same amount. BTC reached its weekly high of 108,952.38 at 22:00 UTC on Monday 16 June and its low of 98,200.00 at 20:00 UTC on Sunday 22 June; the low came after the high, and the close sat in the lower third of the range (25.7%). ETH followed the same order, high of 2,680.34 on Monday, low of 2,111.89 on Sunday, closing at 2,227.70 (close location 20.4%). Ether fell 8.18 percentage points more than Bitcoin, so the ETH/BTC ratio — how many units of ETH one BTC buys — dropped 8.55%. Hourly correlation was 0.81, close but not locked. Turnover diverged: BTC dollar volume of 11.5 billion was 0.81 times its prior twelve-week average, while ETH's 10.09 billion was 1.05 times. ETH's realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 77.1% against BTC's 38.8%.
What it does not show. The data gives no cause for the decline and no identity for the sellers. The ratio gap shows Ether weakened more, but not whether that weakness led Bitcoin's fall or followed it, or whether it continued after Sunday's close. The two largest hourly moves were also separated in time: BTC's -1.84% came Sunday 13:00 UTC, ETH's -5.07% on Saturday 21:00 UTC.
What a careful desk would check. The weekly returns rank at the 20th percentile for BTC and the 9th for ETH out of 383 recorded weeks, so Ether's decline sits rarer in its own history. ETH was already 45.49% below its 52-week high, against 9.68% for BTC, so the same percentage loss removes more of what remains on one side. Low BTC volume suggests the move happened without broad participation; a desk would test whether its sizing assumed the two assets move at similar speed, which this week they did not.
Funding. Perpetual funding — a regular payment between long and short holders that keeps contract prices near spot — averaged 0.0036% per eight hours for BTC and 0.0039% for ETH, with small negative excursions (-0.0018% and -0.005%). Longs paid shorts slightly, but no extreme reading points to a crowded side being forced out.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below its Sunday low of 98,200.00 in a later week, the week's floor reading weakens.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio recovers while both prices rise, this week's gap reads as temporary rotation rather than a lasting change in relative strength.
- If BTC volume returns towards its twelve-week average without further price loss, the low-turnover decline loses force as a signal.
- If funding turns more negative while prices keep falling, longs paying to hold would become the crowded side to watch.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- how many units of Ether one Bitcoin buys; a falling ratio means Ether weakened against Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 9th percentile means only 9% of past weeks recorded a lower weekly return
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage