Week of 12 May 2025: Bitcoin closes near its high while Ether ends 0.67% lower
When Bitcoin rises 2.24% and closes near its weekly high while Ether swings 17.88% and ends lower, what does the split say about the week, and what can price data alone not explain?
BTC rose from 104,118.00 to 106,454.26 (+2.24%), closing 1.72% below its 52-week high. ETH fell from 2,514.58 to 2,497.78 (-0.67%) after a 17.88% range, with realised volatility of 81.2% against BTC's 35.9%. Hourly correlation was 0.78 and the ETH/BTC ratio dropped 2.85%.
What the data shows. BTC set its low of 100,718.37 at 18:00 UTC on Monday 12 May, its worst day (-1.27%), then ground higher into the weekend. The high of 106,660.00 and the best day (+3.23%) both fell on Sunday 18 May, and the week closed at 106,454.26, in the upper third of the range (96.5%). The four prior weeks were all positive for BTC (1.69%, 10.06%, 0.56%, 10.44%), so this week extended a run without matching it. ETH took the opposite path: it peaked at 2,738.50 on Tuesday 13 May (+7.38% that day), then slid to a low of 2,323.21 on Sunday 18 May, including a -3.26% hour starting 17:00 UTC. BTC volume was 0.85 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume was 1.59 times.
What it does not show. The data records prices and funding payments, not motives. Nothing here says why ETH sold off while BTC held, or whether the same accounts moved between them. BTC sits 1.72% below its 52-week high and ETH 38.88% below, but a distance from a peak is not a forecast of direction.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's realised volatility of 81.2% was far above BTC's 35.9%, so a position sized on BTC's swings is too small for ETH in the same proportion. BTC's largest hourly move was 1.68% and occurred late in the UTC day, as did its high and low; late-UTC hours carried this week's risk on both assets. A desk would ask whether its stops and margin buffers assume intraday hours that were quieter than Sunday's.
Ether against Bitcoin. Hourly correlation was 0.78, so the two assets moved close together but not in lockstep. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 2.85%, so ETH underperformed rather than merely falling with BTC.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades back below this week's low of 100,718.37, the strong close reads as a late-week push that did not hold.
- If ETH holds above its Sunday low of 2,323.21 while BTC stalls near 106,660.00, the divergence narrows without a new BTC high.
- If funding stays near its positive averages of 0.0056% for BTC and 0.0063% for ETH, longs keep paying shorts a small regular cost, so the price move is happening without heavy pressure from either funding side.
- If ETH volatility stays near 81.2% while BTC stays near 35.9%, position sizing that treats the two as alike remains unbalanced.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the weekly close sits within the week's high-to-low range; a high reading means the close was near the weekly high
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts