Week of 19 May 2025: Bitcoin gains 2.40% and closes 2.48% below its 52-week high
When Bitcoin extends a run of rising weeks and closes near its weekly high while Ether stalls, what can this week's price and funding data show, and what can it not?
BTC rose from 106,454.27 to 109,004.19 (+2.40%) and ETH from 2,497.78 to 2,551.22 (+2.14%). Both hit their weekly low at 06:00 UTC on Monday 19 May. BTC closed 2.48% below its 52-week high, ETH 37.57% below. Volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both.
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed in the same hour, 06:00 UTC on Monday 19 May (BTC 102,000.00; ETH 2,348.38), and both then stayed above that level. BTC reached 111,980.00 on Thursday 22 May at 17:00 UTC and closed at 109,004.19, in the upper third of its weekly range (70.2%). ETH reached 2,734.23 on Friday 23 May at 02:00 UTC, but its worst day of the week (-5.19%) came the same day, and it closed in the middle third of its range (52.6%). BTC's worst day was also Friday (-3.92%). The largest hourly move fell in the same hour for both, -2.33% for BTC and -4.38% for ETH, starting 17:00 UTC on Wednesday 21 May. Dollar volume reached 21.28 billion for BTC and 12.93 billion for ETH, running 1.28 times and 1.39 times their respective prior twelve-week averages. Hourly correlation was 0.80, and the ETH/BTC ratio changed only -0.25%, so the two moved closely together.
What it does not show. This is a fifth consecutive rising week for BTC (the four prior weeks returned 10.06%, 0.56%, 10.44% and 2.24%), and the pattern names no cause and no buyer. The data has no open-interest or order-book figures, so the size and holders of positions behind the move cannot be measured here.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the scale of the swings that actually happened, expressed as a yearly figure, was 48.3% for BTC and 77.2% for ETH, with an ETH range of 16.43% against BTC's 9.78%. ETH sits 37.57% below its 52-week high while BTC is 2.48% below, so similar weekly returns describe very different positions. A desk would test whether its stops would have held through Wednesday 17:00 UTC and whether the Friday give-back extended into the following week.
Funding. BTC funding was positive at every print, averaging 0.0067% per eight hours (minimum 0.0013%, maximum 0.01%). ETH averaged 0.0055%, with a minimum print of -0.0049% and a maximum of 0.01%. On average, longs paid shorts.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades back below its weekly low of 102,000.00, this week's gain reads as a pause inside a wider range rather than a continuation.
- If ETH's weekly return again trails BTC's while the ETH/BTC ratio falls further from its -0.25% move, the lag is becoming persistent rather than one week's noise.
- If funding rises towards its 0.01% eight-hour maximum while price stops advancing, longs are paying more to hold a position that is no longer rising.
- If the Friday give-back (BTC -3.92%, ETH -5.19%) repeats in a later week, the late-week weakness becomes the pattern a desk sizes against.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits between the week's low and high, as a percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price; positive means longs pay shorts