Week of 5 May 2025: Ether rises 39% as Bitcoin gains 10.44%, a 28.57-point gap
When Ether gains 39.01% in one week while Bitcoin gains 10.44%, what can this week's data say about the divergence between the two, and what can it not say?
ETH rose from 1,808.86 to 2,514.57 (+39.01%), its 99th-percentile week in 377 weeks of history, while BTC gained 10.44% to 104,118.00. The gap was 28.57 percentage points, and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 25.88%. ETH volume ran 1.59 times its prior 12-week average; BTC volume was 0.9 times, below its own.
What the data shows. Both assets rose, by very different amounts. BTC moved from 94,277.61 to 104,118.00 (+10.44%) and ETH from 1,808.86 to 2,514.57 (+39.01%). Both set their weekly low in the same hour, 13:00 UTC on Tuesday 6 May, and both lows came before their highs. ETH's best day, Thursday 8 May, added 21.88% against BTC's 6.42%; the worst day for both was Sunday 11 May (-2.66% and -0.66%). Both closed in the upper third of their weekly range. BTC finished 3.88% below its 52-week high, ETH 38.47% below its own. The weekly return ranked at the 99th percentile of 377 weeks for ETH and the 87th for BTC.
What it does not show. The candles do not say why the two assets separated, and they cannot identify who was trading. They do show different participation: ETH's dollar volume of 13.49 billion was 1.59 times its prior twelve-week average, while BTC's 14.59 billion was 0.9 times, below its own average. An hourly correlation of 0.59 is loose, so the prices did not move in lockstep.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 87.7% for ETH and 35.1% for BTC. The largest hourly moves, 4.75% for ETH and 1.66% for BTC, set the scale a position would have had to survive. Funding stayed close to zero: ETH averaged 0.0056% per eight hours and BTC 0.0045%, with neither weekly maximum above 0.01%, so the cost of holding a leveraged position stayed small in this data.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 25.88%, leaving ETH 28.57 percentage points ahead of BTC for the week. A shared low hour alongside a loose correlation of 0.59 suggests the week began as one move and then split. ETH still sits 38.47% below its 52-week high while BTC is 3.88% below, so the same weekly advance starts from very different points.
What would change this reading
- If ETH closes a later week below its weekly open of 1,808.86, the divergence reads as a one-week re-rating rather than a lasting change of direction.
- If BTC's dollar volume returns above its prior 12-week average while price holds near 104,118.00, the BTC gain would have broader participation than this week's 0.9 times shows.
- If funding rises towards the weekly maximum of 0.01% while ETH remains 38.47% below its 52-week high, leverage would be building on one side of a still-depressed price.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back part of its 25.88% gain while hourly correlation stays near 0.59, the two assets are still trading on separate drivers.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much prices actually swung over a period, restated as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; a rise means Ether outperformed Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 99th percentile means 99% of the 377 weeks were lower