Week of 28 April 2025: both assets rise on thin volume and near-zero funding
When a week posts an exactly median return, below-average volume and funding near zero, what does the data say about positioning, and what does it leave unasked?
BTC rose from 93,749.29 to 94,277.62 (+0.56%) and ETH from 1,791.29 to 1,808.86 (+0.98%), moving together (hourly correlation 0.85). Dollar volume ran at 0.63x (BTC) and 0.56x (ETH) the prior twelve-week average. Funding averaged -0.0017% for BTC and +0.0003% for ETH per eight hours.
What the data shows. BTC gained 0.56% and ETH 0.98%, in the same direction, with an hourly correlation of 0.85. BTC traded between 92,800.01 (Monday 28 April, 01:00 UTC) and 97,895.68 (Friday 2 May, 14:00 UTC), a 5.49% range with the low before the high. ETH ranged from 1,731.70 (Wednesday 30 April, 14:00 UTC) to 1,873.17 (Thursday 1 May, 15:00 UTC), a wider 8.17%. Both assets made their best day on 1 May (BTC +2.46%, ETH +2.48%) and their worst on 4 May (BTC -1.65%, ETH -1.34%). The largest hourly moves were small: -1.61% for BTC (Wednesday 30 April, 13:00 UTC) and -2.22% for ETH (12:00 UTC). Dollar volume was 10.85 billion for BTC and 5.33 billion for ETH, at 0.63 and 0.56 times their prior twelve-week averages. BTC's weekly return sat at the 50th percentile of 376 weeks; ETH's at the 53rd.
What it does not show. Thin volume and quiet funding do not say who stayed out of the market or why. BTC closed in the lower third of its range (29.0%), which describes where price ended, not where it goes. The two assets sit very differently below their 52-week highs, BTC 12.96% and ETH 55.74%, and the data gives no reason for that gap. The ETH/BTC ratio change of 0.41% is one week; it is not a trend.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that happened, scaled to a yearly figure, was 31.2% for BTC and 46.8% for ETH. Three of the prior four BTC weeks were up (+6.8%, +1.69%, +10.06%), so this quiet week followed a stronger stretch. A desk would compare the 5.49% range and the -1.61% largest hourly move with its stop distances, and ask whether the lower-third close persists into the next week.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged -0.0017% per eight hours, inside a band of -0.0122% to 0.0058%. ETH averaged +0.0003%, inside -0.0087% to 0.0083%. Neither side was paying the other in any meaningful size.
What would change this reading
- If dollar volume returns towards the prior twelve-week average while price holds above this week's BTC low of 92,800.01, the quiet week reads as consolidation rather than disinterest.
- If BTC trades below 92,800.01 after closing in the lower third of its range (29.0%), the week reads as a stall at the start of a weaker stretch.
- If funding moves clearly away from zero, one side has begun paying to stay in position, which is a change from this week's balance.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gain of 0.41% extends while ETH stays 55.74% below its 52-week high, the outperformance is a rebound inside a deeper decline.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 50th percentile means half of the 376 recorded weeks were lower
- close location
- where the week's closing price fell inside the week's high-to-low range, expressed as a percentage
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage