Week of 21 April 2025: BTC gains 10.06% and ETH 12.85% on below-average volume
When both assets post a high-percentile weekly gain on volume below the prior twelve-week average and near-flat funding, what does the price data support, and what does it leave open?
BTC rose from 85,179.24 to 93,749.30 (+10.06%) and ETH from 1,587.36 to 1,791.29 (+12.85%). Both gains ranked at the 87th percentile of 375 weeks of history. Dollar volume was 0.90 times BTC's and 0.78 times ETH's prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. BTC set its weekly low of 85,144.76 in the first hour of Monday 21 April, then climbed to a high of 95,758.04 at 14:00 UTC on Friday 25 April, a range of 12.46%. The best day was Tuesday 22 April (BTC +6.77%, ETH +11.19%), which also carried the largest hourly moves in the same hour starting 21:00 UTC (BTC +2.12%, ETH +3.48%). Both closes finished in the upper third of their weekly ranges (BTC 81.1%, ETH 79.3%). The two assets moved closely (hourly correlation 0.77), and ETH outperformed, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 2.53%. ETH sat 56.17% below its 52-week high at the close; BTC was 13.45% below its own.
What it does not show. Volume below the prior twelve-week average (0.90 for BTC, 0.78 for ETH) tells us fewer dollars changed hands than in recent weeks, not whether buying came from spot accounts or leveraged ones. Funding near zero (BTC averaging 0.0001% per eight hours) says perpetual futures traders were roughly balanced, but the data has no open-interest or order-book figures, so the size of any positioning cannot be measured here.
What a careful desk would check. The prior four weeks were mixed for BTC (-4.29%, -4.81%, 6.8%, 1.69%) and mostly down for ETH (-9.88%, -12.56%, 1.07%, -0.65%), so this week reversed a soft stretch rather than extending an established one. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 36.4% for BTC and 65.0% for ETH. A desk would ask whether volume confirms the move or whether the close near the range highs could be reversed on lighter activity than the prior twelve weeks.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades back below this week's open of 85,179.24 (BTC) or 1,587.36 (ETH), the gain reads as a rebound that faded rather than a change in trend.
- If volume returns above its prior twelve-week average while price holds near these closes, the move gains a firmer base.
- If funding rises well above its 0.0077% eight-hour high for BTC, leveraged longs are paying to hold, which raises the cost of staying in the trade.
- If ETH continues to outperform while its hourly correlation with BTC stays near 0.77, the pair is behaving as two markets rather than one.
Terms
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; near zero means the two sides are roughly balanced
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 87th percentile means 87% of the 375 prior weeks were lower