Week of 16 December 2024: Bitcoin falls 8.88% and Ether 17.11%, ending near lows
When two assets fall in the same week but one falls twice as far, what does the data show about direction, and what can it say about relative weakness?
BTC fell from 104,463.99 to 95,186.27 (-8.88%) and ETH from 3,959.09 to 3,281.83 (-17.11%). Both hit their low at 12:00 UTC on Friday 20 December. The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 9.03%, and both assets closed in the bottom fifth of their weekly range.
What the data shows. The week fell in two steps. BTC's high of 108,353.00 came on Tuesday 17 December at 14:00 UTC, and its worst day was Wednesday 18 December (-5.59%). ETH's worst day was the same, at -6.84%. Both assets set their low in the same hour, 12:00 UTC on Friday 20 December (BTC 92,232.54, ETH 3,101.90). The week's range was 17.48% for BTC and 32.43% for ETH. Dollar volume reached 28.32 billion for BTC and 18.27 billion for ETH, which were 1.47 and 1.83 times their respective prior twelve-week averages. Weekly returns ranked at the 13th percentile for BTC and the 6th for ETH against 357 recorded weeks.
What it does not show. The candles do not identify the selling or the buyers at Friday's low. The close location value — where the close sits between the week's high and low — was 18.3% for BTC and 17.9% for ETH, so both ended in the bottom fifth of their range. That measures position, not intent, and says nothing about the week that followed.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's largest hourly move was +4.23% in the hour the low was set, while BTC's largest was -2.41% in an earlier Friday hour. That contrast is consistent with a bounce in ETH off its low, but one hour is thin evidence. Realised volatility reached 61.6% for BTC and 94.5% for ETH, against a prior four weeks that were positive for each asset on three occasions (BTC +8.95%, -0.73%, +4.04%, +3.32%; ETH +9.27%, +10.31%, +8.00%, -1.13%). The data contains no volatility figures for those weeks, so the size of the change in swing cannot be measured here.
Ether against Bitcoin. The two assets moved together closely (hourly correlation 0.86), yet the ratio fell 9.03%, so this was a broad decline with a clear additional drag on ETH. ETH was 19.69% below its 52-week high against 12.07% for BTC.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades above this week's BTC open of 104,463.99, the decline reads as a shakeout rather than the start of a longer fall.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after a -9.03% week, the relative weakness is a trend, not a single week's divergence.
- If realised volatility returns towards the prior four weeks' pace, position sizes set during those weeks become appropriate again.
- If funding stays near 0.009% per eight hours while prices are lower, longs are paying a small carry into a falling market.
Terms
- close location value
- where the closing price sits between the period's high and low, as a percentage; low values mean the close was near the bottom
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower return; the 6th percentile means 94% of the 357 recorded weeks were higher
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage