Week of 9 December 2024: Bitcoin closes at its 52-week high, up 3.32%, as Ether falls 1.13%
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions in the same week, both close near the top of their weekly range, and funding stays positive, what does the divergence actually tell a careful observer?
BTC rose from 101,109.60 to 104,463.99 (+3.32%) while ETH fell from 4,004.15 to 3,959.09 (-1.13%). Both hit their lows on Monday 9 December at 21:00 UTC, then BTC recovered to a new weekly high on Sunday. The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 4.30%, so the week was a relative shift, not a shared one.
What the data shows. BTC opened the week at 101,109.60 and closed at 104,463.99 (+3.32%), finishing at 92.9% of its weekly range, in the upper third. Its high of 105,250.00 arrived on Sunday 15 December at 23:00 UTC, and the close sat 0.00% below its 52-week high. ETH told the other story: it opened at 4,004.15 and closed at 3,959.09 (-1.13%), with its high of 4,006.17 set in the very first hour of Monday, only 0.05% above the open, so the week barely bettered its starting point. Both assets bottomed on Monday 9 December at 21:00 UTC — BTC at 94,150.05, ETH at 3,509.00 — after worst days of -3.79% and -7.30%. Wednesday 11 December was the best day for both (+4.69% and +5.61%). Hourly correlation was 0.83, close but not lockstep, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 4.30%. Dollar volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both (1.26 times BTC, 1.59 times ETH). BTC's weekly return ranked at the 66th percentile of 356 recorded weeks; ETH's at the 44th.
What it does not show. The data measures what happened, not why ETH lagged by 4.45 percentage points. Nothing here identifies who traded, whether the ETH weakness reflected rotation or selling, or whether either asset's Sunday high holds. The close near the top of the range says where price ended within the week, not where it goes next.
What a careful desk would check. ETH carried higher realised volatility (71.3% annualised against BTC's 51.6%) and a wider range (14.17% against 11.79%), while ending the week lower — so it took more risk for less reward in this window. A desk would ask whether the ratio decline is a one-week event or the start of a trend, and would compare its ETH position sizing against that volatility gap.
Funding. Funding on perpetual contracts stayed positive for both assets all week. BTC averaged 0.0113% per eight hours (range 0.0067% to 0.0304%) and ETH 0.0106% (0.0094% to 0.0203%). Long positions paid short ones throughout, a modest carrying cost rather than a crowded one.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls again after a 4.30% weekly drop, the divergence reads as a sustained shift in relative demand rather than a single week's rotation.
- If BTC trades back below Monday's low of 94,150.05, the Sunday high of 105,250.00 becomes a failed push rather than a fresh range top.
- If funding for either asset rises far above 0.0304% per eight hours while price stops advancing, longs are paying more for a position that is no longer rising.
- If ETH closes a later week above 4,006.17, its weekly high set in the first hour of 9 December, the week's weakness reads as absorbed rather than directional.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether divided by the price of Bitcoin; it falls when Ether underperforms Bitcoin, regardless of where both go in dollars
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits between its own low and high; upper third means it ended near the top of its range