Week of 23 December 2024: Ether gains 2.27% while Bitcoin falls 1.52% on thin volume
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions on well-below-average volume, how much of that gap can a week of price data establish as a real shift in relative strength?
BTC fell from 95,186.28 to 93,738.20 (-1.52%) while ETH rose from 3,281.83 to 3,356.48 (+2.27%), a gap of 3.79 percentage points. Dollar volume ran at 0.64 times (BTC) and 0.61 times (ETH) the prior twelve-week average. Funding stayed mildly positive for both.
What the data shows. The two assets parted ways early. ETH set its weekly low of 3,216.97 at 01:00 UTC on Monday 23 December and its best day the same calendar day (+4.29%), while BTC set its low later, at 92,520.00 on Monday 20:00 UTC, then recovered to a weekly high of 99,963.70 at 00:00 UTC on Thursday 26 December. Both assets had their worst day on Thursday 26 December (BTC -3.66%, ETH -4.63%), and both closed well below their weekly highs: the close sat 16.4% of the way up BTC's weekly range and 42.2% up ETH's. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 46.4% for BTC and 59.0% for ETH. Dollar volume was 13.46 billion for BTC and 6.8 billion for ETH, at 0.64 and 0.61 times their prior twelve-week averages.
What it does not show. A 3.79 percentage point return gap is a fact about two closing prices, not evidence of a durable change in relative strength. Thin volume can widen gaps that later compress. The data carries no order-book or open-interest figures, so the size and ownership of positions behind the divergence cannot be measured here, and nothing identifies who was trading.
What a careful desk would check. BTC finished 13.41% below its 52-week high and ETH 17.87% below, so both sat in pullbacks of different depths. A desk would ask whether the Thursday drop that hit both assets together was a shared reversal or a pause inside ETH's stronger week, and would compare the 3.99% BTC gain on Tuesday 24 December with the 4.29% ETH gain on Monday 23 December to see which move came first and held.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 3.85% over the week. Hourly correlation of 0.80 records that the two prices usually moved in the same direction hour by hour, while the ratio's 3.85% rise records which asset ended the week further ahead. The correlation figure alone does not say which asset moved further in any given hour.
What would change this reading
- If the ratio gives back the 3.85% gain in a later week, this week reads as a short-lived divergence rather than a shift.
- If BTC volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average while price holds above the weekly low of 92,520.00, the Thursday drop reads as a low-liquidity move.
- If hourly correlation between the two assets falls well below 0.80 in later weeks, the common-driver reading of this week weakens.
- If either asset closes a later week below its weekly low, the Thursday reversal becomes the more important signal.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin, used to track which asset is stronger
- close location
- where the weekly close fell within the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage