Week of 21 October 2024: Bitcoin slips 1.46% while Ether falls 8.70% in dollars
When both assets fall in the same week but one loses six times more, how much of the move is shared and how much is specific to Ether?
BTC fell from 69,032.00 to 68,021.70 (-1.46%); ETH fell from 2,746.91 to 2,507.80 (-8.70%). Both reached their weekly high in the first hour on Monday 21 October and their low later in the week. The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 7.35%, so the gap was mostly an Ether move.
What the data shows. The two assets fell together but by very different amounts. BTC's high of 69,519.52 came in the opening hour on Monday 21 October; its low of 65,260.00 arrived at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday 23 October, a range of 6.53%. ETH set its high of 2,769.48 in the same opening hour and its low of 2,382.59 only at 23:00 UTC on Friday 25 October, a range of 16.24%. BTC's worst day was Monday (-2.40%) and its best Thursday (+2.29%); ETH's worst was Friday (-3.75%) and its best Saturday (+1.72%). Dollar volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for BTC (0.93 times) and roughly at it for ETH (0.97 times). Hourly correlation between the two was 0.80, a close but not tight reading.
What it does not show. Neither price candles nor volume identify who was trading or why ETH fell further. Funding rates were positive for both, averaging 0.0096% per eight hours for BTC and a flat 0.01% for ETH, which indicates longs paid shorts; it does not size those positions. The week's close tells us nothing about what followed.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 31.6% for BTC and 41.9% for ETH. BTC closed in the middle third of its range (64.8%) while ETH closed in the lower third (32.4%), so ETH finished the week nearer its lows. A desk would compare ETH stop distances with the 16.24% weekly range and with the prior four weeks, which were up three times out of four for both assets.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 7.35%, and ETH's weekly return trailed BTC's by 7.24 percentage points. That is the week's main fact: a modest common decline plus a distinctly larger ETH-specific one.
What would change this reading
- If the ratio keeps falling in later weeks, this week's 7.35% drop reads as the start of a persistent divergence rather than a one-week gap.
- If BTC trades back above its weekly high of 69,519.52 while ETH stays near its low of 2,382.59, the gap was not a shared risk-off move.
- If either asset's volume rises well above its prior twelve-week average, the light turnover behind this week's decline would no longer describe the market.
- If funding for either asset turns negative while prices hold near these closes, the longs-paying-shorts pattern seen this week has reversed.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; a falling ratio means Ether is losing value relative to Bitcoin
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts