Week of 14 October 2024: Bitcoin gains 9.8% and closes 6.18% below its 52-week high
When Bitcoin rises 9.8% in a week on near-average volume and small positive funding, what does the data suggest about the strength of the move, and what can it not settle about its cause?
BTC rose from 62,870.02 to 69,031.99 (+9.8%) and ETH from 2,468.92 to 2,746.91 (+11.26%). Both weekly lows came early on Monday 14 October and both highs in the same hour late on Sunday 20 October. Funding stayed positive all week, averaging 0.0096% per eight hours for BTC.
What the data shows. BTC rose from 62,870.02 to 69,031.99 (+9.8%) and ETH from 2,468.92 to 2,746.91 (+11.26%). Both set their weekly lows early on Monday 14 October (BTC 62,457.81 at 00:00 UTC, ETH 2,443.39 at 02:00 UTC) and their highs in the same hour late on Sunday 20 October (22:00 UTC, BTC 69,400.0, ETH 2,759.0). Each close sat in the upper third of its week range: 94.7% for BTC, 96.2% for ETH. The best day was Monday (BTC +5.11%, ETH +6.52%); the worst days were mild (BTC -0.29% on 17 October, ETH -0.85% on 15 October). These returns ranked at the 86th and 83rd percentile of 348 weeks of history, meaning most past weeks were smaller.
What it does not show. The candles do not say what drove the rise or who bought. BTC dollar volume was 12.44bn, 1.08 times its prior twelve-week average, while ETH volume was 5.21bn, 0.91 times its own average. ETH rose more on less activity than usual; whether that thinner participation persists is outside this data.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the swings actually recorded scaled to a year, was 49.3% for BTC and 59.0% for ETH. The largest single hourly move was a fall: -3.37% for BTC and -3.86% for ETH, both in the hour starting 14:00 UTC on Tuesday 15 October. Stops and leverage sized for a rising week would still face that hour. Funding stayed positive every eight hours, averaging 0.0096% for BTC and 0.0098% for ETH, with BTC between 0.0054% and 0.01%; longs paid shorts a small running cost. At the close BTC stood 6.18% below its 52-week high, ETH 32.47% below its own.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH outpaced BTC by 1.46 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio gained 1.33%. Hourly correlation was 0.88 (close), so the two moved together while ETH moved slightly more.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes above this week's high of 69,400.0 for BTC, the Sunday high reads as a pause rather than a peak.
- If weekly returns stay near the 86th percentile while BTC volume stays near 1.08 times its prior twelve-week average, the move is running on price rather than rising activity.
- If funding moves above 0.01% per eight hours while price stalls near 69,031.99, longs would be paying more to hold a flat position.
- If ETH falls more than 1.46 percentage points below BTC in a later week, this week's relative gain reverses.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the week, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 86th percentile means 86% of past weeks were lower