Week of 28 October 2024: Bitcoin rises 1.11% while Ether falls 2%
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions within one week, what does the price and volume data reveal about the split, and what can it not explain?
BTC rose from 68,021.69 to 68,775.99 (+1.11%) while ETH fell from 2,507.8 to 2,457.73 (-2.0%), a 3.11 percentage point gap. Both peaked on Tuesday and Wednesday and closed in the lower third of their weekly ranges, with Sunday lows. The ETH/BTC ratio dropped 3.07%.
What the data shows. BTC reached its weekly high of 73,620.12 at 19:00 UTC on Tuesday 29 October, then drifted lower to a Sunday low of 67,478.73, closing at 68,775.99 in the lower third of its 9.1% range. ETH followed a similar shape but with a steeper descent: a high of 2,722.3 at 14:00 UTC on Wednesday 30 October, a Sunday low of 2,411.0, and a 12.91% range. The two assets shared their worst day, 31 October (BTC -2.84%, ETH -5.29%), and their largest hourly move, -2.64% and -2.41% respectively in the hour starting 15:00 UTC on Friday 1 November. Hourly correlation was 0.81, close but not locked together. Volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both (1.31 times for BTC, 1.19 for ETH).
What it does not show. Prices record the size and timing of the split, not its cause. Nothing here identifies which traders drove ETH lower or why the gap widened. Both weekly returns sit near the middle of the historical record (53rd percentile for BTC, 35th for ETH across 350 weeks), so nothing in this data marks the week as exceptional on its own.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sits 6.53% below its 52-week high, ETH 39.58% below its own. A closing price in the lower third of the range after an early high often signals that the week's buying was not sustained into the close, though one week cannot confirm a turn. Realised volatility was 42.4% for BTC and 51.5% for ETH, expressed as annualised figures.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 3.07%, so ETH weakened against BTC rather than merely following it down. That is a relative move, and it would matter more if it repeated.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling while BTC holds above its Sunday low of 67,478.73, the divergence reads as a trend in relative strength rather than a one-week fluctuation.
- If BTC trades back towards its weekly high of 73,620.12 with volume returning to normal, the fade into Sunday reads as profit-taking after an early peak.
- If ETH recovers above its Wednesday high of 2,722.3, the week's 3.07% ratio decline loses much of its force.
- If funding turns negative for either asset while prices sit in the lower third of their ranges, the cost of holding longs becomes a separate signal to weigh.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; a falling ratio means Ether is weakening relative to Bitcoin
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits within that week's high-to-low range; a low reading means it closed near the bottom
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage