Week of 20 November 2023: BTC ends 0.23% higher after a midweek dip, ETH gains 2.53%
When both assets dip midweek, recover, and close near unchanged, what does the week's shape reveal about direction, and what does it leave undetermined?
BTC rose from 37,359.85 to 37,447.43 (+0.23%) and ETH from 2,011.47 to 2,062.33 (+2.53%). Both hit lows at 00:00 UTC Wednesday and highs at 15:00 UTC Friday. Funding stayed flat at +0.01% per eight hours for both.
What the data shows. The week had a clear shape: both assets bottomed at 00:00 UTC on Wednesday 22 November (BTC 35,632.01, ETH 1,928.41), then recovered. The low came before the high in both cases, and both highs landed in the same Friday hour at 15:00 UTC (BTC 38,414.00, ETH 2,133.02). Wednesday was the best day for both (BTC +4.66%, ETH +6.74%) and Tuesday the worst (BTC -4.56%, ETH -4.37%). ETH outperformed by 2.3 percentage points, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 2.29%. Hourly correlation between the two was 0.77, a close reading on the usual -1 to 1 scale. Both closed in the middle third of their ranges, and dollar volume ran above the prior twelve-week average (1.20x for BTC, 1.46x for ETH).
What it does not show. The candles do not say what moved prices on Tuesday night or what the Friday high reflected. A close at 65.3% of the range (BTC) and 65.5% (ETH) does not establish direction for the following week. Neither volume nor correlation identifies who was trading.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sits 2.02% below its 52-week high, ETH 3.29%, after four straight up weeks for BTC (15.12%, 1.41%, 5.86%, 0.80%). The weekly return ranked at the 47th percentile for BTC and 57th for ETH, so the close was ordinary against 301 weeks of history. Realised volatility was 36.9% (BTC) and 46.3% (ETH), and the largest hourly moves (-1.75% BTC, -2.16% ETH) came late Tuesday, just ahead of the low.
Funding. Funding held at +0.01% per eight hours for both assets, with no variation across the week. That is a small, steady cost for longs, and it gives no sign of crowded positioning in either direction.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 35,632.01 in a later week, the midweek dip reads as the start of a reversal rather than a pause.
- If funding stays pinned at +0.01% while volume returns to its twelve-week average, the week reads as consolidation.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio continues rising after a 2.29% weekly gain, the relative shift has legs rather than being one week's drift.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 47th percentile means 47% of past weeks were lower