Week of 13 November 2023: Bitcoin ends 1.32% below its 52-week high while Ether falls 1.62%
After four straight rising weeks, what does a nearly flat week 1.32% below a 52-week high tell us about whether the trend is pausing or losing buyers?
BTC rose 0.80% to 37,359.86, 1.32% below its 52-week high, after a 9.14% weekly range. ETH fell 1.62% to 2,011.47 and lagged BTC by 2.42 percentage points, with the ETH/BTC ratio down 2.40%. Funding stayed positive for both all week.
What the data shows. BTC rose 0.80% to close at 37,359.86, sitting 1.32% below its 52-week high after four rising weeks of 10.45%, 15.12%, 1.41% and 5.86%. The path was not smooth. The low of 34,800 came at 18:00 UTC on Tuesday 14 November and the high of 37,980 at 23:00 UTC on Wednesday, a range of 9.14%. Wednesday 15 November was the best day (+6.49%) and held the largest hourly move, +2.46% in the hour starting 18:00 UTC; Thursday 16 November was the worst day at -4.48%. BTC's close sat at 80.5% of the weekly range. ETH moved the other way over the week, falling 1.62% to 2,011.47. Its high of 2,118 came on Monday 13 November and its low of 1,904 on Friday 17 November, a range of 11.24%. Its best and worst days were the same Wednesday and Thursday (+4.00% and -4.70%). The ETH/BTC ratio fell 2.40%, and the largest hourly moves did not coincide: ETH's -2.85% fell in Tuesday's 18:00 UTC hour. Dollar volume was 1.38 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 1.85 times for ETH.
What it does not show. The candles record a pause after a strong run; they do not say why buying eased or whether it returns. Positive funding shows that long holders paid short holders, not how large those positions were. The ratio gap shows relative weakness in Ether, not its cause.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's weekly return ranked at the 51st percentile of the 300 weeks recorded, so an ordinary week followed an unusual run. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 42.7% for BTC and 52.4% for ETH. A close near the top of the range combined with a -4.48% Thursday is a mixed picture. A desk would test whether stops placed after Tuesday's low of 34,800 would have survived Thursday, and whether a position sized on the prior four weeks fits a market that now spans 9.14% in a week.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.0128% per eight hours, between 0.01% and 0.0325%; ETH averaged 0.0129%, between 0.01% and 0.033%. Every reading was positive, so longs paid shorts throughout. The cost is small against a 9.14% weekly range, but it is a running carry for a leveraged long held into a stall.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 34,800 in a later week, this pause reads as the start of a pullback rather than a rest inside the uptrend.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after a 2.40% weekly drop, Ether's weakness is a trend rather than one week of noise.
- If funding falls back to its 0.01% floor while price holds near 37,980, the longs paying to stay in are less committed than this week suggests.
- If realised volatility for BTC drops well below 42.7%, the 9.14% range becomes the exception and stop distances set this week look wide.
Terms
- close location
- where the closing price sits inside the week's high-to-low range, as a percentage; 80.5% means near the top
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether measured in Bitcoin; falling means Ether is weakening against Bitcoin