Week of 30 October 2023: Bitcoin gains 1.41% to 35,011.88, 1.87% below its 52-week high
When Bitcoin adds only 1.41% while sitting 1.87% below its 52-week high but Ether outperforms by nearly four points, is the week a broad advance or a shift between the two assets?
BTC rose 1.41% to 35,011.88, closing 1.87% below its 52-week high; ETH rose 5.38% to 1,891.71, outperforming by 3.97 points and lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 3.92%. Dollar volume ran above the prior twelve-week average for both, and hourly correlation was 0.79.
What the data shows. BTC rose from 34,525.88 to 35,011.88 (+1.41%). Its high of 35,984.99 came at 02:00 UTC on Thursday 2 November, after the weekly low of 34,025.00 was set at 08:00 UTC on Tuesday 31 October. The close sat at 50.4% of the week's range, in the middle third, and 1.87% below the 52-week high. ETH rose from 1,795.14 to 1,891.71 (+5.38%), closing in the upper third of its range (84.5%) after its high of 1,912.67 on Sunday 5 November, its best day (+1.95%). Dollar volume was 1.35 times BTC's and 1.48 times ETH's prior twelve-week average. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 37.9% for BTC and 39.9% for ETH.
What it does not show. Hourly correlation of 0.79 means the two prices moved closely but not identically; it does not tell us whether ETH's extra gain came from money rotating out of BTC or from separate buying. The data identifies no traders and no flows, and the ETH high arriving on Sunday does not establish that the move continued.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's two most recent prior weeks were strong (+10.45% and +15.12%), so +1.41% marks a slowdown while the close sat 1.87% below the 52-week high; this week ranked at the 54th percentile of 298 recorded weeks. ETH's rank was higher (67th) after two up weeks (+6.8%, +7.9%). A desk would test whether BTC can clear 35,984.99 or whether a close below 34,025.00 turns the stall into a reversal.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH outperformed by 3.97 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 3.92%. Yet ETH remained 11.11% below its own 52-week high against BTC's 1.87%, so the catch-up ran from a lower base rather than to a joint high.
What would change this reading
- If BTC closes a later week below its weekly low of 34,025.00, the stall 1.87% below the 52-week high reads as a failed advance rather than a pause.
- If ETH holds above its close of 1,891.71 while the ratio keeps rising, the shift between the two assets is continuing rather than a one-week rotation.
- If hourly correlation falls well below 0.79, hedging one asset with the other becomes less reliable.
- If ETH funding rises above its weekly high of 0.0268% per eight hours while price stops rising, longs are paying more for a position that is no longer advancing.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether expressed in Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts