Week of 23 October 2023: Bitcoin rises 15% to within 1% of its 52-week high as Ether lags
When both assets rise for a week but one moves twice as far, what does that gap say about where the buying concentrated, and what would confirm or overturn it?
BTC rose from 29,992.46 to 34,525.89 (+15.12%), its 92nd percentile week in 297 weeks of history, and closed 0.9% below its 52-week high. ETH gained 7.90%, leaving the ETH/BTC ratio down 6.27%. BTC dollar volume was 12.52 billion, 2.14 times its prior 12-week average.
What the data shows. The low came first for both assets, at 00:00 UTC on Monday 23 October: BTC at 29,883.60 and ETH at 1,657.07, essentially the opening prints. Monday was the best day of the week for both (BTC +10.26%, ETH +6.12%), and the largest hourly move landed in the same hour for each, starting 22:00 UTC Monday (+5.33% for BTC, +4.00% for ETH). BTC set its high of 35,280.00 early on Tuesday 24 October at 02:00 UTC; ETH did not set its high of 1,865.54 until Thursday 26 October at 08:00 UTC. Reversals were mild: the worst day was -1.00% for BTC (26 October) and -1.33% for ETH (27 October). BTC closed in the upper third of its weekly range, 0.9% below its 52-week high; ETH closed in the middle third, 15.65% below its own. The weekly return ranked at the 92nd percentile of the 297 weeks recorded before it, after a mixed run of +6.64%, -0.27%, -2.73% and +10.45%.
What it does not show. The candles show size and timing, not origin. Nothing here identifies who was buying or whether the move carried into spot positioning that persists. Funding rates record a payment, not position size. The two highs on different days do not establish which asset led.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, reached 60.6% for BTC and 59.8% for ETH, so a +5.33% hour sits within a week already moving fast. Funding was positive but small, averaging 0.0095% per eight hours for BTC with a maximum of 0.0100%, which points to modest payment from longs rather than the crowded condition a much higher rate would suggest. A desk would test whether the 17.63% gap between the weekly open and the weekly high was reachable within its risk limits and whether ETH-based hedges would have covered a BTC position.
Ether against Bitcoin. The hourly correlation of 0.84 puts the two in the close range, so they moved together, but not evenly: ETH's 7.90% against BTC's 15.12% left the ETH/BTC ratio down 6.27% for the week. Volume rose for both, 2.14 times the prior 12-week average for BTC and 1.79 times for ETH.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below this week's low of 29,883.60 in a later week, the move reads as a spike that was retraced rather than a durable shift.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling after a 6.27% weekly drop, the divergence is a trend and hedges held in ETH become the weaker leg.
- If funding rises well above this week's 0.0100% eight-hour maximum while price stalls near the 52-week high, the cost of holding longs starts to matter.
- If volume falls back towards its prior 12-week average, the week's price range should be read with more caution, since it was built on above-average activity.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 92nd percentile means 92% of the 297 prior weeks were smaller
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether divided by the price of one Bitcoin; it falls when Ether underperforms Bitcoin