Week of 27 November 2023: Bitcoin gains 6.74% and closes within 0.22% of its 52-week high
When a market rises steadily for several weeks and ends just below its 52-week high, what can one week of prices say about the strength of the move, and what can it not say?
BTC rose from 37,447.42 to 39,972.26 (+6.74%) and ETH from 2,062.34 to 2,192.95 (+6.33%). Both set their weekly highs at 22:00 UTC on Sunday 3 December, with BTC ending 0.22% below its 52-week high. Volume was above the prior 12-week average for both.
What the data shows. BTC lost ground early: its weekly low of 36,707.0 came at 16:00 UTC on Monday 27 November, the same late part of the day as ETH's low of 1,985.78 at 19:00 UTC. Both then climbed, and both highs arrived at 22:00 UTC on Sunday 3 December (BTC 40,250.0, ETH 2,217.27), so the low came before the high in both assets. The week's ranges were modest (9.65% for BTC, 11.66% for ETH), and the largest single hourly moves were small: 1.41% for BTC and 1.99% for ETH. BTC closed in the upper third of its weekly range (92.2% of the way from low to close) and ETH likewise (89.5%). Dollar volume ran 1.16 times the prior 12-week average for BTC and 1.20 times for ETH. All four prior weeks were up for BTC (1.41%, 5.86%, 0.8% and 0.23%), and this week's return ranked at the 78th percentile of the 302 weeks of history recorded.
What it does not show. A rising close near a 52-week high does not identify who was buying or with what leverage. The data contains no open-interest or order-book figures, so the size of any positioning cannot be measured here. Nothing in the week's candles indicates what came after Sunday's close.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 31.8% for BTC and 39.9% for ETH. Small weekly ranges can still leave a trend intact, so a desk would separate the quiet path from the direction and ask whether its risk limits assume a wider week than this one delivered.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0098% per eight hours and never left a tight band (0.007% to 0.01%). Positive funding means holders of long positions paid holders of short ones; ETH's rate was 0.01% throughout. The payments were small and steady rather than stretched.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below this week's low of 36,707.0 for BTC, the quiet climb reads as a pause rather than a continuation.
- If BTC trades above 40,250.0 while funding rises beyond 0.01% per eight hours, the calm positioning reading starts to weaken.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps falling beyond -0.38%, the move has become a relative one and BTC is carrying it alone.
- If weekly ranges widen while realised volatility rises above 31.8% for BTC, this week's small moves stand as unusually calm.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price; positive means longs pay shorts
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 78th percentile means 78% of past weeks were lower