Week of 28 November 2022: BTC and Ether rebound, on below-average trading volume
After a sharp monthly decline, what does a 4% to 7% weekly rebound on thin trading volume tell a desk about the strength of the move?
BTC rose from 16,428.77 to 17,105.70 (+4.12%) and ETH from 1,193.88 to 1,279.41 (+7.16%). Both bottomed in the same hour, 16:00 UTC Monday, and closed in the upper third of their weekly ranges. Dollar volume ran at 0.66x and 0.61x the prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. Both assets set their low in the same hour, 16:00 UTC on Monday 28 November (BTC 15,995.27, ETH 1,151.02), and their highs came later, so the low preceded the high for both. Wednesday 30 November was the best day for each (+4.38% BTC, +6.41% ETH) and also held the largest hourly move for each (+2.45% and +4.79%, both starting 00:00 UTC). ETH lost more on its worst day (Saturday, -4.25%) than BTC did on its (Monday, -1.31%), yet ETH still beat BTC by 3.04 percentage points, taking the ETH/BTC ratio up 2.92%. The two moved together closely (hourly correlation 0.89). BTC closed at 83.6% of its weekly range and ETH at 80.9%, both in the upper third. The weekly return ranked at the 68th percentile for BTC and 72nd for ETH among 250 recorded weeks.
What it does not show. Volume was 0.66x the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.61x for ETH. Thin volume does not establish that demand was weak; it may only mean fewer sellers showed up. The data identifies no participants and no cause. Two weeks earlier BTC fell 21.89% and ETH 22.11%, so this week recovers part of that loss; nothing here says whether the recovery holds.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 32.9% for BTC and 52.7% for ETH. Funding stayed near flat (BTC averaged 0.0037% per eight hours, ETH 0.0024%), so leverage was not visibly crowded on either side. A desk would test whether sizing built for the more volatile prior weeks still fits, and whether its exits assume volumes this week did not show.
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH came from the deeper decline: three of its prior four weeks were down, against two of four for BTC. Its weekly range was also wider (13.79% against 8.31%). One week of outperformance is a data point, not a trend.
What would change this reading
- If a later week trades below 15,995.27 for BTC or 1,151.02 for ETH, this week's Monday low reads as a pause rather than a floor.
- If dollar volume returns towards its prior twelve-week average while price holds above 17,105.70, the rebound gains a participation signal it lacked here.
- If ETH's lead extends well beyond this week's 3.04 percentage points, the relative move is becoming the trade rather than a single-week swing.
- If funding turns materially negative while prices stay near their weekly highs, the mild cost of holding longs has reversed, which changes the crowding picture.
Terms
- close location
- where the week's closing price sits within its high-to-low range, as a percentage; 83.6% means the close was near the top of the range
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of one Ether measured in Bitcoin, showing which of the two gained or lost ground against the other