Week of 14 November 2022: Bitcoin closes flat while Ether falls a further 6.49%
After a week in which both assets lost more than a fifth of their value, does the following week show stabilisation, and what does the split between Bitcoin and Ether reveal about it?
BTC fell just 0.32%, from 16,331.78 to 16,280.23, while ETH fell 6.49%, from 1,221.50 to 1,142.21. Both assets' weekly highs and BTC's low came on Monday 14 November, and volume ran below the prior twelve-week average for both. ETH closed in the lower 6.0% of its weekly range.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 16,331.78 and closed at 16,280.23, a 0.32% fall that ranks at the 45th percentile of the 248 weeks on record. Its high of 17,190.00 came on Monday 14 November at 13:00 UTC and its low of 15,815.21 earlier that same day at 05:00 UTC, so the week's 8.69% range was largely set on day one. The largest hourly move, +4.87%, also sits in Monday's early UTC hours. ETH fell further: 1,221.50 to 1,142.21 (-6.49%), a return at the 23rd percentile. Its high matched BTC's timing (1,291.20 on Monday at 13:00 UTC) but its low of 1,132.65 arrived at 23:00 UTC on Sunday 20 November, the week's final hour. Best day for both was Monday; worst day for both was Sunday (BTC -2.52%, ETH -6.20%). Dollar volume was 0.67 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.64 times for ETH. Realised volatility, the size of the swings that actually happened scaled to a yearly figure, was 55.3% for BTC and 70.8% for ETH. Both remain far below their 52-week highs: BTC -72.48%, ETH -76.04%.
What it does not show. The data cannot say why Bitcoin held while Ether did not, or who was trading. A near-flat BTC week after a -21.89% week could reflect absorption or simply an absence of activity; volume below the prior twelve-week average argues for the latter being at least possible. ETH's low landing in the week's last hour means the decline was unresolved at the close, and nothing here indicates what followed.
What a careful desk would check. Close location, where the close sits inside the week's range, separates the two assets: BTC closed at 33.8% (middle third), ETH at 6.0% (lower third). ETH finished the week pressed against its low; BTC did not. Funding was mildly negative for both, averaging -0.0026% per eight hours for BTC and -0.0014% for ETH, with a BTC low of -0.0177%, so shorts were paying longs on average but only slightly. A desk would ask whether ETH's underperformance continues the prior week's -22.11% and whether the Sunday low is defended.
Ether against Bitcoin. The pair moved together closely (hourly correlation 0.88) but not identically: the ETH/BTC ratio fell 6.20%, and ETH trailed BTC by 6.17 percentage points. This was a broad move with a clear relative tilt towards Bitcoin, not two independent markets.
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades below its weekly low of 15,815.21 in a later week, the flat close reads as a pause rather than stabilisation.
- If ETH holds above its Sunday low of 1,132.65 while BTC stays near 16,280.23, the relative weakness may be limited to this week.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further after a 6.20% weekly decline, the divergence is extending rather than closing.
- If funding turns more negative than -0.0177% for BTC while volume stays below the prior twelve-week average, positioning rather than activity is driving price.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 45th percentile means 45% of the 248 recorded weeks were lower
- close location
- where the weekly close falls between the week's low and high, as a percentage; a value near zero means the close sat near the low
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1