Week of 11 July 2022: Ether gains 14.57% while Bitcoin ends flat at -0.30%
When Bitcoin and Ether move closely hour by hour but finish the week in opposite directions, what does that gap between them tell us about relative strength, and what does it leave unanswered?
BTC closed 20,798.16, down 0.30% from 20,861.11, while ETH closed 1,338.65, up 14.57% from 1,168.37. The gap of 14.87 percentage points came despite an hourly correlation of 0.92. Both assets bottomed at 12:00 UTC on Wednesday 13 July, and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 14.92%.
What the data shows. The week divided in two. Both assets fell to their lows at 12:00 UTC on Wednesday 13 July — BTC to 18,910.94 and ETH to 1,006.32 — in the same hour as BTC's largest one-hour move, -3.42%. From there they recovered together, but ETH recovered far more. ETH's best day was Saturday 16 July at 10.12%, and its largest hourly move, +6.63%, came at 16:00 UTC that day, when ETH set its weekly high of 1,422.91. BTC's best day was Wednesday at 4.67%, and BTC finished in the upper third of its range while remaining 69.7% below its 52-week high; ETH was 72.38% below its own. The two prices tracked each other closely hour by hour (correlation 0.92), yet the ETH/BTC ratio rose 14.92% over the week.
What it does not show. Candles record prices, not motives. Nothing here explains why Ether gained while Bitcoin did not, or whether the divergence reflects anything beyond two different paths from a shared low. Both assets were deep in drawdowns, so percentage gains at these levels describe distance travelled, not recovery of prior value.
What a careful desk would check. ETH's realised volatility (the swing of actual prices scaled to a yearly figure) was 111.0% against BTC's 67.3%, and ETH's weekly range was 41.4% against BTC's 14.67%. A correlation of 0.92 does not mean the assets move by the same amount; this week is the demonstration. A desk would ask whether its ETH exposure was sized for a move roughly three times BTC's weekly range.
Funding. BTC funding averaged 0.0049% per eight hours, so longs paid shorts slightly. ETH funding averaged -0.0011%, with a low of -0.0197%, meaning shorts paid longs on average even as ETH rose.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio keeps rising in later weeks, this week reads as a lasting shift in relative strength rather than a one-week rebound effect.
- If BTC closes below this week's low of 18,910.94, the Wednesday low was shared support that failed.
- If ETH's realised volatility stays near 111.0% while its correlation with BTC holds above 0.92, hedging ETH with BTC would keep leaving a large gap.
Terms
- hourly correlation
- how closely two prices moved together hour by hour, from -1 to 1
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which asset gained against the other
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage