Week of 4 July 2022: Bitcoin rebounds 8.01% but stays 69.60% below its 52-week high
After weeks of falling prices, what does one strong rebound week that still closes far below its 52-week high tell us about the trend, and what can price data alone not settle?
BTC rose from 19,315.83 to 20,862.47 (+8.01%) and ETH from 1,074.26 to 1,168.36 (+8.76%), after three of the prior four weeks fell. Both set their weekly highs at 01:00 UTC on Friday 8 July. BTC closed 69.60% below its 52-week high and ETH 75.89% below its own.
What the data shows. Both assets bottomed early on Monday 4 July (BTC 19,055.31 at 03:00 UTC, ETH 1,045.37 at 06:00 UTC) and topped out at 01:00 UTC on Friday 8 July (22,527.37 and 1,276.46). The low came before the high, and the weekly ranges were 18.22% for BTC and 22.11% for ETH. Sunday 10 July was the worst day for both (-3.38% and -4.0%), leaving each close in the middle third of its week range. BTC dollar volume was 23.56bn, 1.57 times its prior 12-week average; ETH volume was 8.81bn, 0.78 times its average. ETH finished 0.75 percentage points ahead, and the ETH/BTC ratio gained 0.70%.
What it does not show. Prices record the path, not its cause. Nothing here identifies who bought or why. A one-week rise of 8.01% leaves BTC 69.60% below its 52-week high and ETH 75.89% below its own, so the move sits inside a much larger fall. The data carries no open interest (the value of contracts still open), no order book and no positioning.
What a careful desk would check. Three of the prior four weeks fell for BTC (-11.18%, -22.58%, +2.26%, -8.19%), so a rebound could be a turn or a pause. This week's BTC return ranked at the 79th percentile of 229 weeks recorded, with realised volatility (swings actually made, scaled to a year) at 64.7% for BTC and 79.0% for ETH. The largest hourly move was 2.33% for BTC, on Friday 8 July, which suggests a steady advance rather than one hour of force. ETH's largest hourly move was -2.52%, on Wednesday 6 July, against the week's direction.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding averaged 0.0076% per eight hours, between 0.0001% and 0.01%. ETH averaged 0.0055%, with a low of -0.0142%. Positive funding means long holders paid short holders; ETH's negative reading shows the balance reversed at least once during the week.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below this week's low of 19,055.31, the rebound reads as a pause within the decline.
- If BTC closes above 22,527.37 while volume stays at or above 1.57 times its prior 12-week average, the reversal has more behind it than this week alone.
- If funding stays positive while price stalls near 20,862.47, longs would be paying to hold a position that is no longer rising.
- If ETH keeps outperforming BTC by more than 0.75 percentage points a week, the move has become a relative one.
Terms
- 52-week high
- the highest price of the past year; being far below it means the market has fallen a long way from its peak
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 79th percentile means 79% of past weeks were lower