Week of 27 June 2022: Bitcoin and Ether fall to Thursday lows on below-average volume
When prices fall to new lows on below-average trading volume, what can the week say about how much conviction stood behind the move, and what would confirm or weaken that reading later?
BTC fell from 21,038.08 to 19,315.83 (-8.19%) and ETH from 1,197.79 to 1,074.26 (-10.31%), both lows on Thursday 30 June. Dollar volume ran 0.67 times the prior twelve-week average for BTC and 0.74 times for ETH. The ETH/BTC ratio slipped 2.32%.
What the data shows. Both assets opened near their highs and closed in the lower third of their weekly ranges. BTC set its high of 21,539.85 at 08:00 UTC on Monday 27 June and its low of 18,626.00 at 20:00 UTC on Thursday 30 June, a range of 15.64%. ETH reached 1,238.93 at 10:00 UTC on Monday and 998.00 at 13:00 UTC on Thursday, a range of 24.14%. The largest hourly move for each came in the same hour, starting 23:00 UTC on Thursday: 5.54% for BTC and 4.62% for ETH. The two moved closely all week (hourly correlation 0.9), yet ETH finished 2.12 percentage points worse and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 2.32%. These weekly returns rank at the 18th and 15th percentiles of the 228 weeks recorded.
What it does not show. BTC dollar volume of 10.1 billion was 0.67 times its prior twelve-week average and ETH's 8.4 billion was 0.74 times. Light volume on a falling week does not say whether sellers were pressing or buyers were absent. Nothing here identifies who traded, and the Thursday lows do not establish a floor.
What a careful desk would check. Realised volatility — how far prices actually swung, expressed as a yearly figure — was 71.6% for BTC and 87.1% for ETH. At the close, BTC sat 71.86% below its 52-week high and ETH 77.84%. The prior four BTC weeks (1.53%, -11.18%, -22.58%, 2.26%) show this fall arrived inside an unsettled stretch, not a calm one. A desk would test its buffers against ETH's 24.14% weekly range.
Funding. BTC perpetual funding — the regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual contract — averaged 0.0007% per eight hours, between -0.0159% and 0.0083%. ETH averaged -0.0028%, with a low of -0.0217%, so short holders paid long ones on average. Rates near zero imply little carrying pressure on either side.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below BTC's low of 18,626.00, the Thursday low reads as a pause rather than a floor.
- If volume stays below its prior twelve-week average while prices fall further, the decline continues without stronger participation to confirm it.
- If ETH keeps underperforming BTC after a 2.32% drop in the ETH/BTC ratio, the week's shared move has turned into a relative one.
Terms
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- perpetual funding
- a regular payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract that keeps its price close to the spot price
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which asset held up better