Historical scenario replay
What happens if you run today's positions through a past week's actual price moves?
In plain words
Historical scenario replay means taking positions you hold now and applying the price path of a real earlier week to them, so you can see the drawdown, margin calls or stop-outs that week would have produced.
Why it matters
It converts an abstract worst case into a concrete one. Because the path uses observed highs, lows and hourly moves rather than a smooth average, it reveals whether a position survives the timing of a fall, not just its size.
In a real week: BTC, week of 27 June 2022
Replaying BTC's week of 27 June 2022 against a long position shows what the path costs. BTC opened at 21038.08, fell 8.19% to close at 19315.83, and ranged 15.64%, reaching a low of 18626.0 on 30 June at 20:00 UTC (Thu) after a high of 21539.85 on 27 June at 08:00 UTC (Mon). Realised volatility was 71.6% annualised, the largest 1h move was 5.54% late in the UTC day on 30 June, and the week closed in the lower third of its range.
A common mistake
Assuming a replayed week predicts the next one. It is a single real path drawn from the available history; other weeks were worse or calmer, so sizing should respect the wider set rather than one example.