Week of 8 November 2021: Bitcoin gains 3.55% while Ether stalls and the pair's ratio falls
When Bitcoin and Ether reach their weekly highs in the same hour but end the week far apart, what can one week of prices say about divergence, and what can it not say?
BTC rose from 63,273.58 to 65,519.1 (+3.55%) while ETH moved from 4,612.59 to 4,626.5 (+0.3%). Both set highs at 14:00 UTC on Wednesday 10 November, BTC at 69,000.0 and ETH at 4,868.0, and both closed 4.54% below their 52-week highs. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 3.14% and funding stayed positive all week.
What the data shows. BTC opened at 63,273.58 and closed at 65,519.1, a gain of 3.55%, while ETH went from 4,612.59 to 4,626.5 (+0.3%). Both assets peaked in the same hour, 14:00 UTC on Wednesday 10 November, and both ended the week 4.54% below their 52-week highs. Each had its best day on Monday 8 November (BTC +6.72%, ETH +4.24%) and its worst on Wednesday 10 November (BTC -3.08%, ETH -2.19%). BTC dollar volume was 19.3 bn, 1.1 times its prior twelve-week average, while ETH reached 11.67 bn, 0.93 times its average. The two moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.86).
What it does not show. The matching high hour does not establish one shared cause for both peaks. Nothing here identifies who traded, how large positions were, or what happened after Sunday 14 November. The weekly candles also hide where the week's gains came from within individual days.
What a careful desk would check. BTC's weekly range ran 10.79%, from a low of 62,278 at 16:00 UTC on Friday 12 November to 69,000.0, yet the close sat at 48.2% of that range, in the middle third. The gain was front-loaded: best day Monday, worst day Wednesday. Realised volatility, the size of actual swings scaled to a yearly figure, was 54.3% for BTC and 53.7% for ETH. Funding, the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual contract, stayed positive every eight hours, averaging 0.0326% for BTC and 0.0145% for ETH, with a BTC maximum of 0.0682%, so long holders paid throughout.
Ether against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio fell 3.14%, leaving ETH 3.25 percentage points behind despite the 0.86 correlation. ETH volume ran below its prior twelve-week average while BTC ran above. The four weeks before had been uniformly positive for ETH (12.67%, 6.12%, 5.02%, 7.58%) against a mixed BTC run (12.57%, -1.1%, 0.74%, 3.22%).
What would change this reading
- If BTC trades above 69,000.0 in a later week, the Wednesday high was a pause rather than a ceiling.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio falls further while correlation stays near 0.86, the divergence is persisting rather than closing.
- If funding stays positive while price stops advancing, long holders pay more for a position that is no longer rising.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether expressed in Bitcoin, showing which of the two gained more
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage