Week of 1 November 2021: Ether gains 7.58% and closes within 0.88% of its 52-week high
When both assets rise on below-average volume while longs keep paying funding, how strong is the move, and what would confirm or weaken that reading?
BTC rose from 61,299.81 to 63,273.59 (+3.22%) and ETH from 4,287.48 to 4,612.59 (+7.58%), both closing in the upper third of their weekly range. Volume ran below the prior 12-week average for both (0.88x BTC, 0.89x ETH). Positive funding persisted, averaging 0.0392% per eight hours for BTC.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly low at 04:00 UTC on Monday 1 November (BTC 59,405.00, ETH 4,146.30); after that low, prices moved higher overall but not in a straight line, as Thursday 4 November was the week's worst day for both (BTC -2.39%, ETH -1.54%). BTC peaked at 64,270.00 on Tuesday 2 November 15:00 UTC; ETH peaked later, at 4,665.87 on Wednesday 3 November 19:00 UTC. Tuesday was the best day for both (BTC +3.79%, ETH +6.26%); Thursday 4 November was the worst (BTC -2.39%, ETH -1.54%). ETH's weekly range was wider (12.53% against 8.19%), and its largest hourly move (+2.29% in the hour starting 18:00 UTC Wednesday) came just before its high. Dollar volume was 15.67bn for BTC and 11.52bn for ETH, at 0.88 and 0.89 times their prior twelve-week averages.
What it does not show. Rising prices on below-average volume are a description, not a cause. The data cannot say who was buying, whether the buying was leveraged, or whether it continues. Positive funding shows that holders of long perpetual positions paid holders of short ones, but it does not size those positions. The move also lacks a long base of comparison: each weekly return sits at the 61st percentile for BTC and the 71st for ETH across 194 recorded weeks, meaning 61% of recorded weeks saw smaller BTC gains and 71% saw smaller ETH gains.
What a careful desk would check. Funding averaged 0.0392% per eight hours for BTC with a high of 0.0821%, and 0.0289% for ETH with a high of 0.0522%. A long held across the week pays that carry, so the trade needs to clear it. ETH closed 0.88% below its 52-week high while BTC remained 5.39% below its own, and the four prior weeks were mixed for BTC (13.40%, 12.57%, -1.10%, 0.74%).
Ether against Bitcoin. ETH outperformed by 4.36 percentage points, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 4.23%. The two moved closely but not identically (hourly correlation 0.85), so part of the week was specific to Ether rather than a single trade lifted both.
What would change this reading
- If ETH trades above its weekly high of 4,665.87 on heavier volume, the sub-1% gap to its 52-week high reads as pressure rather than exhaustion.
- If BTC falls back below its weekly low of 59,405.00, the week's upper-third close reads as a failed push rather than a base.
- If funding holds near 0.0392% per eight hours for BTC while volume stays below its twelve-week average, the cost of the long side rises without broader participation.
- If the ETH/BTC ratio gives back the 4.23% gain, the outperformance was a short-lived rotation rather than a shift in relative strength.
Terms
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; positive means longs pay shorts
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 61st percentile means 61% of the 194 recorded weeks were lower