Week of 22 November 2021: BTC falls 2.29% while ETH gains 0.82% after a shared Friday shock
When Bitcoin and Ether move in opposite directions over a week that contains a violent shared day, what does the data show about the shock, and what can it not show about the split?
BTC fell from 58,617.70 to 57,274.88 (-2.29%) while ETH rose from 4,259.70 to 4,294.78 (+0.82%). Both had their worst day on Friday 26 November (BTC -8.88%, ETH -10.68%) and their largest hourly drop in the same hour. Funding stayed positive and BTC volume ran near the prior twelve-week average.
What the data shows. The week's shape was set by Friday 26 November. Both assets posted their worst day then (BTC -8.88%, ETH -10.68%) and their largest hourly move in the same hour starting 08:00 UTC (BTC -3.07%, ETH -5.61%). ETH reached its weekly high of 4,551.00 at 00:00 UTC on Friday and its low of 3,913.00 at 12:00 UTC the same day, a 16.30% range. BTC's high of 59,444.00 came at 13:00 UTC on Monday and its low of 53,256.64 at 18:00 UTC on Sunday 28 November; its best day was that final Sunday, +4.68%. Despite the shared shock the assets ended apart: ETH outperformed by 3.11 percentage points and the ETH/BTC ratio rose 3.19%, though they still moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.90). Volume was near normal for BTC (0.97 times its prior twelve-week average) and slightly above for ETH (1.07 times).
What it does not show. The candles cannot explain why one asset recovered its weekly loss while the other did not. A 0.90 hourly correlation shows the two moved closely but not identically, and it cannot identify who was trading. BTC closed at 64.9% of its weekly range and ETH at 59.8%, both in the middle third, so neither finished near its high or its low. The data contains no order-book or open-interest figures, so the size of the Friday move cannot be attributed to any particular source.
What a careful desk would check. BTC sat 16.55% below its 52-week high at the close and ETH 11.39%, so both were already well off their peaks. This week's return ranked at the 28th percentile of BTC's prior 197 weeks and the 47th for ETH, and the prior four weeks had contained a sharp down week (BTC -10.53%, ETH -7.96%). A desk would compare the Friday hourly moves with its stop distances and margin buffers, and would treat the ETH outperformance as a ratio shift to be tested in later weeks rather than as a settled change of trend.
What would change this reading
- If the ETH/BTC ratio holds above the level set this week in later weeks, the 3.19% rise reads as a durable shift rather than a one-week divergence.
- If BTC trades below its Sunday low of 53,256.64, the week's slide extends and the +4.68% Sunday rebound reads as a pause.
- If a shared shock of this size repeats with volume far above the prior twelve-week average, this week's near-average volume would read as lighter participation.
- If funding turns negative while prices fall, longs stop paying shorts, which would change the cost picture behind this week's positive rates.
Terms
- ETH/BTC ratio
- the price of Ether divided by the price of Bitcoin; it rises when Ether outperforms Bitcoin
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 28th percentile means most prior weeks were stronger
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over the period, expressed as a yearly percentage