Week of 9 March 2026: Bitcoin and Ether rise more than 10% after several down weeks
When both assets gain more than 10% in a single week after a run of down weeks, does the move confirm a turn, and what do volume and funding say about its depth?
BTC rose from 65,971.20 to 72,815.24 (+10.37%), ETH from 1,937.11 to 2,178.30 (+12.45%) — the 88th and 87th percentile of 421 weeks. Both lows came in the week's first hour and both highs in the same hour on Friday 13 March. BTC volume was 1.07 times its prior twelve-week average; ETH volume only 0.71 times.
What the data shows. Both assets set their weekly lows in the week's first hour, at 00:00 UTC on Monday 9 March: BTC at 65,821.97 and ETH at 1,929.65, with the opens sitting 0.23% and 0.39% above those lows. The high for both arrived in the same hour, 14:00 UTC on Friday 13 March (BTC 73,913.74, ETH 2,209.03). There was no losing day for BTC: the best was Monday (+3.73%) and the worst, Wednesday 11 March, still gained 0.35%. ETH's best day was Sunday 15 March (+3.92%). Both closed in the upper third of their weekly range (86.4% for BTC, 89.0% for ETH). The two moved closely hour by hour (correlation 0.91), and ETH gained 2.08 percentage points more, lifting the ETH/BTC ratio 1.88%. The largest hourly moves were modest: 2.21% for BTC on Tuesday and 2.20% for ETH on Friday.
What it does not show. Both assets remain well below their 52-week highs: BTC by 42.22%, ETH by 55.86%. A week ranking in the 88th and 87th percentile of 421 follows four weeks that were down three times for BTC and four times for ETH, but the data cannot say whether that sequence has ended. It records no cause, and it does not identify who was buying.
What a careful desk would check. Volume diverges. BTC traded 1.07 times its prior twelve-week average, ETH only 0.71 times, so Ether moved further on activity thin relative to its own history. A desk would test whether that ratio holds in later weeks. Realised volatility (the size of the swings that actually happened, scaled to a yearly figure) was 49.2% for BTC and 59.9% for ETH, so position sizing built on this week alone would understate a 10% range.
Funding. Funding — the periodic payment between long and short holders of perpetual futures — averaged −0.0033% per eight hours for BTC (low −0.0111%, high 0.0043%) and −0.0003% for ETH (low −0.0225%, high 0.0055%). On average, longs were paid while price rose, so leverage did not visibly chase the move.
What would change this reading
- If a later week closes below this week's open, 65,971.20 for BTC and 1,937.11 for ETH, the rise reads as a rebound inside the decline rather than a turn.
- If ETH's dollar volume stays below its prior twelve-week average while the ratio keeps rising, the outperformance rests on thin trading.
- If funding turns clearly positive while price stalls at or below 73,913.74 for BTC, longs would be paying to hold a position that is no longer rising.
Terms
- percentile
- the share of past weeks with a lower value; the 88th percentile means 88% of the 421 recorded weeks were lower
- realised volatility
- how much the price actually swung over a period, expressed as a yearly percentage
- funding rate
- the periodic payment between long and short holders of a perpetual futures contract; negative means shorts pay longs